Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code SSWC In a non-conference clash on Saturday night at M. M. Roberts Stadium, as the Sun Belt's Southern Miss (2-2) plays host to C-USA's Jacksonville State (2-2). Both of these teams have identical records and while Southern Miss lost their last game, Jacksonville State won its last one. Last season at Jax State, the Gamecocks laid a 44-7 beatdown over the Golden Eagles and for this Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss prediction, you can check out the full score info and other free NCAAF picks.
Southern Miss comes into this game as a 4-point favorite with a total of 57.
Jax State Crushes FCS Opponent
In their last game, Jax State was at home and crushed a winless FCS foe in a 45-10 romp over Murray State. The Gamecocks were dominant from the get-go, outgaining the Racers 531 yards to 233 yards, rushing for 329 yards, and forcing two turnovers. Gavin Wimsatt passed for 188 yards with a TD and no picks, Cam Cook rushed for 147 yards and two scores, and Brock Rechsteiner led the way with 89 receiving yards and a TD. Jax State failed to cover as a huge 35.5-point favorite and has failed to cover in the last two games after doing so in the first two.
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- The Gamecocks are nearly all about the run, ranking eighth in the nation in rushing yards per game and only 125th in passing yards per game.
- Wimsatt (557 yards 2 TD 2 INT) has passed for at least 178 yards in each of the last two games and has rushed for at least 50 yards in each of the last three games.
- Cook (537 yards 4 TD) is the big gun on offense and in the last three games has averaged 154 rushing yards.
- Both of the Gamecocks' losses this season have been on the road.
- Jax State will be facing a USM defense that only ranks 124th in the nation against the pass, but 45th against the run.
Southern Miss Already Better than Last Season
Southern Miss has already surpassed their win total from last season, when it only won one game. They had won two in a row before a 30-20 road loss in their last game facing Louisiana Tech. In the loss, they outgained the Bulldogs by a significant margin (514 yards to 340 yards), but had the only turnover in the game and gave up all 30 points in the first half. Braylon Braxton had a big game passing for 392 yards with two TD and one INT, the Golden Eagles rushed for 122 yards, and Carl Chester had 118 receiving yards. USM failed to cover as a 3-point underdog after covering the spread in their previous two games.
- Southern Miss is just the opposite as Jax State, as they are led by the pass, ranking 32nd in the nation in passing yards per game but only tied for 108th in rushing yards per game.
- Braxton (1,084 yards 9 TD 4 INT) has 2 TD and a pick in each of the last two games and is also the team’s leading rusher (125 yards).
- Five players have triple digits in receiving yards, led by Chester (211 yards), who is averaging 16.2 yards per catch.
- The Golden Eagles are 2-1 at home and will face a Gamecocks’ team that ranks 116th in the nation in defending the pass and 87th in defending the run.
Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss Pick
Spread pick for Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
- Southern Miss -4 (+4 Units)
Not only are both of these teams 2-2, but each team has one win over an FCS team. Jax State is coming off a win, but they were at home and are 0-2 on the road this season. Southern Miss is coming off a loss where they nearly outgained their opponents by 200 yards. They are 2-1 at home, and their strength is passing the ball and they will face a Gamecocks team that only ranks 124th in defending the pass. On the other side of the coin, Jax State is one of the best rushing teams in the nation and will face a USM run defense that ranks 45th against the run. In terms of the Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss prediction, the Golden Eagles have played well this season with their many new players and at home, they will avenge last season’s blowout loss to Jax State, winning and covering the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
- Over 57 (+4 Units)
When these teams met last season, the total went under, but I am leaning towards the Over in this game. Southern Miss is a pass-first team and they will have a big scoring output in this game, facing a Jax State pass defense that only ranks 124th in the nation in pass defense. The Gamecocks will also put up a high total, as they have a great run game but have passed more in the last two games. They put up 44 points on the Golden Eagles last season and will get it done again in the scoring department. This game will be far from a defensive battle and in a high-scoring affair, the Over is the pick.
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