James Madison (JMU) Dukes vs. Texas State Bobcats, Odds, Preview, Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, October 28, 2025
We have an intriguing Sun Belt Conference matchup in Week 10 of the college football season as the James Madison Dukes face off against the Texas State Bobcats in our Dukes vs. Bobcats prediction. Set to take place inside UFCU Stadium on October 28th at 8:00 PM ET, this game, airing on ESPN2, should be an enticing matchup with two teams playing at different levels up to this point. James Madison is 6-1 (4-0 Sun Belt) so far, while Texas State is currently 3-4 (0-3). With these teams on different streaks heading into this game, let's dive into the stats, injuries, and key insights for this matchup. College gridiron clarity — NCAAF picks for James Madison Dukes at Texas State Bobcats with key matchups.
Dukes Looking to Remain Hot
JMU is looking strong heading into this game as they are on a five-game winning streak after a 63-27 home win over ODU on Oct. 18. Their offense has been clicking as they are scoring 32.3 points per game this year, placing them 47th in the NCAA. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III has been outstanding this season as he has completed 111-of-181 passes (61.3%) for 1,252 yards with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions as well as 53 carries for 266 yards (5.0 yards per attempt) with nine rushing touchdowns heading into this game. As a team, they are moving the ball as one of the top offenses as they are ranked 36th in the country in total yards, averaging 432.3 per game. James Madison’s passing offense, which averages 188.6 yards per game, puts them at 107th in the sport. The rushing game, contributing 243.7 yards per game (eighth nationally), has been stepping up and making them step up throughout the season.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +2,142.00 |
| 2 |  Terry Edelmann | +1,776.00 |
| 3 |  David Hess | +670.00 |
| 4 |  Patty Reyes | +470.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +392.00 |
The Dukes’ defense is currently tied for 14th in the FBS with 15.6 points allowed per game. They are dominating in terms of the amount of yardage as they are fourth in the country with 237.0 total yards per game. The team has been incredible at stopping the run as they are fourth in college football with 2.5 yards per rushing attempt. They need to continue controlling things on the defensive side of the field if they want to continue winning games.
Injury Report for James Madison
- Running back Ayo Adeyi: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Defensive lineman DJ Cotton Jr: Undisclosed (OUT)
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Bobcats Looking to Get Back in the Win Column
The Texas State Bobcats are looking to get back on track as they are on a three-game losing streak after a 40-37 double-overtime road loss against the Marshall Thundering Herd in their last game. They are currently tied for 26th in the NCAA with 36.1 points per game scored. The Bobcats’ offense is being led by quarterback Brad Jackson and he has been able to complete 131-of-188 (69.7%) passes for 1,786 yards with nine passing touchdowns with a pair of interceptions, while adding 90 rushing attempts for 384 yards (4.3 yards per carry) with eight rushing touchdowns to add. Running back Lincoln Pare is stepping up in the running game with his production as he has 118 rushes for 608 yards (5.2 yards per carry) with nine touchdown runs on the as well as 17 catches for 165 yards (9.7 yards per reception) without any touchdown catches this year. Their total offense stands at 488.1 yards per game (ninth in NCAA), with the rushing attack able to get 230.7 yards (11th). The passing game has been clicking as well with an average of 257.4 yards per game (47th).
Defensively, Texas State is giving up 31.3 points per game right now, which is 117th in college football. The team has been getting stops as they are allowing 404.9 total yards per game (105th). However, the passing defense has struggled as they are 120th in the nation with a 67.0 opposing completion percentage.
Injury Report for Texas State
- Defensive lineman Charlie Leota: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Safety Ryan Nolan: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Offensive lineman Tellek Lockette: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Running back Torrance Burgess Jr: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Tight end Blake Smith: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Safety Will Mitchell II: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Cornerback Trez Moore: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Offensive lineman Ian Langford: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Defensive end Jo’Laison Landry: Undisclosed (OUT)
James Madison Dukes at Texas State Bobcats Pick
Spread Pick for JMU vs. Texas State
- James Madison Dukes -6.5 (5 units)
The JMU Dukes are stepping up and have been one of the best Group of Five teams in college football. It starts with an incredible defense that has held teams to 28 or fewer points in every game and has held teams to 14 or fewer in five games. The Dukes. The team is significantly better defensively, especially as of late, with the Dukes giving up 16.0 points in their previous three games, while the Bobcats are allowing 39.7 points in their last three games played. Being able to be closer to zero in terms of their turnover ratio is showing a good program, and there is a gap here. James Madison is posting a -1 turnover ratio while Texas State is down at -5 up to this point. James Madison is 5-2 ATS and 2-1 ATS on the road, while Texas State is 2-5 ATS so go with JMU to cover the spread on the road as the better team.
Over/Under Pick for JMU vs. Texas State
- Over (4 units)
Both teams have shown the ability to score the football well as James Madison is averaging 43.5 points in their last two games, while Texas State is scoring 36.0 points in their previous three games. If you take away their FCS game against Nicholls State, the Bobcats have allowed 37.8 points per game in their last five. A massive reason for their success has been the ability to run for 5.3 yards per rushing attempt with 19 rushing touchdowns, while the Bobcats are running for 5.1 yards per carry with 23 rushing touchdowns throughout the season. These teams also have been moving the chains on third downs as James Madison is 52-for-100 (52.00%) on third-down attempts while Texas State is 53-for-105 (50.48%) on those chances. All in all, go with the over as the better bet that we can make.
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