Kansas Jayhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction and Picks - Saturday, October 11th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Saturday night Big 12 College Football action, and we have a Kansas vs Texas Tech Prediction ready to rock and roll. Kansas comes in off a hard-fought 27-20 road win over UCF, which pushes their season record to 4-2. The Red Raiders come in off a massive 35-11 road win over Houston and are now at a perfect 5-0 on the season. Read on to see our Kansas vs Texas Tech prediction.
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Jayhawks Grab Huge Road Win Against The Knights
Kansas enters Week 7 at 4–2 after a 27–20 road win over UCF, a bounce-back performance following their loss to Cincinnati. Quarterback Jalon Daniels threw for 235 yards on 69.2% passing and added 25 rushing yards, while Leshon Williams rushed for 58 yards and three touchdowns. Daniels has now thrown for 1,497 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just two interceptions on the season, with a 67.3% completion rate. Emmanuel Henderson Jr. leads the receiving corps with 488 yards and four scores, and Cam Pickett and Boden Groen have combined for five more touchdowns. Kansas averages 434.8 total yards and 35.0 points per game, ranking top 45 nationally in both categories.
Defensively, Kansas has been inconsistent. The Jayhawks rank 79th in total defense (375.8 yards/game), 67th against the pass (218.2 yards/game), and 93rd against the run (157.7 yards/game). They’ve allowed 123 points through six games and rank 118th in red zone defense, giving up scores on 94.1% of opponent trips. The pass rush has been modest—just seven sacks—and the secondary has allowed six passing touchdowns while generating only three interceptions. Kansas is 127th in third-down conversion rate (30.8%) and has struggled to sustain drives against top-tier defenses. The bright spot is discipline—just 40.7 penalty yards per game—and a +1 turnover margin.
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Kansas has covered in three of six games this season and is 1–1 ATS on the road. Head coach Lance Leipold has leaned on Daniels’ efficiency and Williams’ red zone finishing, but the Jayhawks will need their cleanest game of the season to keep pace with Texas Tech’s tempo. If the defense can force Morton into quick throws and the offense avoids third-and-long situations, Kansas has the firepower to hang around. But with Texas Tech leading the nation in yardage and playing at home, the margin for error is razor-thin.
Red Raiders Crush Houston To Stay Perfect
Texas Tech enters Week 7 undefeated and ranked No. 9 nationally after a 35–11 win over Houston, continuing their dominant run through the Big 12. Quarterback Behren Morton has thrown for 1,410 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just three interceptions on 69.3% passing, while backup Will Hammond has added 369 yards and four scores. The Red Raiders lead the FBS in total offense (568.8 yards/game), rank second in scoring (48.6 points/game), and first in passing (363.8 yards/game). Their run game is no slouch either—Cameron Dickey (330 yards, 6 TDs) and J’Koby Williams (308 yards, 4 TDs) form a balanced backfield. Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin headline a deep receiving corps that’s averaging 13.8 yards per catch and has produced 17 touchdowns.
Defensively, Texas Tech has been just as impressive. They rank fourth in scoring defense (11.2 points/game), ninth in total defense (244.4 yards/game), and second against the run (65.6 yards/game). Opponents are completing just 52.7% of passes and averaging 3.9 yards per play. The Red Raiders have forced 12 turnovers and rank 10th nationally in turnover margin (+6), with Brice Pollock leading the secondary with three interceptions. The pass rush has generated 12 sacks, and the defense ranks top 10 in third-down stops (25.4% conversion rate allowed). The only blemish is discipline—Texas Tech ranks 127th in penalty yards per game (76.4)—but their ability to flip field position and dominate early downs has masked those miscues.
Texas Tech is a 13.5-point home favorite and has covered in all five games this season, including twice as double-digit chalk. Head coach Joey McGuire has built a high-tempo, high-efficiency machine, and the Red Raiders are 3–0 at home with an average margin of victory of 27.3 points. If Morton continues to protect the ball and the defense contains Jalon Daniels’ mobility, Texas Tech should control tempo and extend its unbeaten streak. With Arizona State and BYU up next, this is a prime spot to solidify their Big 12 title push.
Kansas vs Texas Tech Pick
Kansas vs Texas Tech Spread Pick
- Texas Tech -14 (4 Units)
Texas Tech -14 is a sharp play in a matchup where tempo, talent depth, and defensive disruption all favor the Red Raiders. Behren Morton leads an offense that ranks No. 1 nationally in total yardage and top two in scoring, with a balanced attack that can stretch the field vertically or grind out possessions. Kansas has struggled to generate pressure—just seven sacks all season—and their red zone defense ranks bottom-10 nationally. With Morton’s efficiency, a deep receiving corps, and a run game averaging over 200 yards per contest, Texas Tech has the tools to build an early lead and keep the throttle down.
Defensively, the Red Raiders are elite against the run and have forced 12 turnovers through five games, ranking top 10 in both scoring defense and third-down stops. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is efficient, but he’s been sacked 11 times and faces a front seven that’s allowing just 3.9 yards per play. Texas Tech has covered in all five games this season and is 3–0 at home with an average margin of victory over 27 points. If they control field position and keep Daniels in the pocket, they’re well-positioned to cover and extend their unbeaten streak.
Kansas vs Texas Tech Over/Under Pick
- Under 61 (5 Units)
Under 61 makes sense in a game where Texas Tech’s defense is elite and Kansas will struggle to sustain drives. The Red Raiders allow just 11.2 points per game and rank top 10 nationally in third-down defense and turnover margin. Kansas has firepower but faces a front seven that’s allowing just 65.6 rushing yards per game and forcing quick possessions. With Tech likely to control tempo and Kansas leaning on short-area efficiency, this matchup sets up for fewer possessions and limited explosive plays—keeping the total in check.
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