Kansas Jayhawks vs. UCF Knights Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Kansas Jayhawks will visit the UCF Knights this Saturday for a closely projected Big 12 matchup, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Kansas vs. UCF prediction. Kansas is coming off a 34-37 home loss to Cincinnati in Week 5, while UCF is coming off a two-touchdown road loss to Kansas State. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 4.
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Can Kansas secure first road win against Knights?
The Kansas Jayhawks have alternated wins and losses for several weeks since opening 2-0 against Fresno State (31-7) and FCS Wagner (46-7). They've sandwiched their 41-10 rout of West Virginia in Week 5, which came off a Week 4 bye, with a 31-42 road loss to rival Missouri and a 34-37 home loss to Cincinnati.
Defense was optional in the Jayhawks' loss to the Bearcats, which saw Kansas and Cincinnati combine for an even 1,200 yards of offense. Cincinnati narrowly outgained Kansas 603 yards to 597, and both teams converted a roughly even share of their third-down attempts, but the Jayhawks gave away the game's lone turnover down 27-30 in the fourth quarter. Senior quarterback Jalon Daniels completed 19 of 28 passes for 445 yards and four touchdowns, averaging a 67.9 completion percentage and 15.9 yards per attempt–he's now up to 1,262 yards and 16 passing touchdowns for the season, ranking 12th and 2nd among FBS quarterbacks, respectively. Emmanuel Henderson, who finished the game with 214 yards and two touchdowns on only five catches, ranks 10th in yardage among FBS receivers.
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Saturday's trip to Orlando will mark the Jayhawks' second road game of the season. Their offense wasn't nearly as effective on the road against Missouri–Daniels led the team in rushing, gaining 25 of the Jayhawks' 31 yards, while Henderson accounted for a pedestrian 29 yards on three catches.
How will UCF bounce back from KSU loss?
The UCF Knights entered Week 5 with a 3-0 record, following a dominant win against North Carolina A&T (68-7) and a less-expected dominant win against North Carolina (34-9). They followed those acts with a road loss to Kansas State, falling 34-20 to a Wildcats team that'd fought for its life against FCS North Dakota earlier this season and lost to each of their other FBS opponents.
The short answer to what happened in that game is that the Knights committed three turnovers, converted only three times on 13 third-down plays, and lost on each of two attempts to convert on fourth down. Kansas State didn't score quickly–this game was still tied 0-0 at the end of the first quarter–but the Knights either punted or gave the ball away after six or fewer plays on five of their first six possessions. Tayven Jackson completed only 12 of his 24 passes for 115 yards, averaging only 4.8 yards per completion, and played the remainder of the game after suffering a sprained AC joint. Senior backs Myles Montgomery and Jaden Nixon combined for 185 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries, but were still outgained by a Kansas State offense that ran for 266 total yards on the strength of Dylan Edwards and quarterback Avery Johnson.
UCF is still 3-1 heading into Week 6, ranking 66th in passing yards (234.5), 36th in rushing yards (203.0), and tying for 48th in points (34.8) per game among FBS teams. They should look significantly better against Kansas if they get out of their own way and don't make their day unnecessarily difficult again.
Kansas vs. UCF Prediction
Spread Pick for Kansas vs. UCF Prediction
- UCF +4.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Knights are 3-1 and returning home after their first loss of the season–a road game that they gave away on turnovers and poorly-finished drives, and in which their quarterback suffered and played through an injury. They should perform substantially better if Jackson can play at his full capacity for the whole game. He didn't appear on Wednesday's Big 12 player availability report, indicating that he'll be ready to play for the Knights on Saturday. I'd expect them to keep things close against Kansas, if they don't win outright.
Over/Under Pick for Kansas vs. UCF Prediction
- Over 54.5 (-110) (5 Units)
The Team Total Over is only 2-3 in Kansas games, falling short against Fresno State (31-7), Wagner (46-7), and West Virginia (41-10). It isn't for any lack of scoring from the Jayhawks–they've notched 31 or more points in each of their five games, easily clearing the total line in their losses against Missouri (31-42) and Cincinnati (34-37). At only 54.5, the Under here isn't a bet that I'd be willing to make on the Jayhawks' defense against a UCF Knights offense that performed well in two straight games prior to their Week 5 letdown.
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