Kansas State vs. Baylor Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Big 12 season churns ahead this weekend, and we have an under-the-radar mid-conference clash between the Kansas State Wildcats (2-3, 1-1 B12) and the Baylor Bears (3-2, 1-1 B12). We’ve got you covered with our Kansas State vs. Baylor prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 ET from McLane Stadium in Waco, TX. Looking to win big this football season? We have the best College Football Picks to help you out!
Wildcats Bounce Back, Beat Knights
Coach Chris Klieman is in his seventh season as the lead man of the Kansas State Wildcats, and this year’s team has been the laughingstock of college football at times. They were under the bright lights in a standalone game in Dublin to open the season, in which they lost 24-21 to #22 Iowa State. Then they coughed up a game against Army (24-21) at home, before losing on the road to Arizona (23-17). They have a tight win over North Dakota (38-35) in Week 2, and they snapped a two-game slide last weekend against UCF (34-20). The Cats are 1-4 ATS, and they’ve gone 3-2 to the under.
The talented Avory Johnson is under center this season, and he has looked decent. The junior quarterback has thrown for 1,019 yards on a 62.5% completion rate, adding eight touchdowns and one interception. Jayce Brown is his favorite target in the receiving game, and he has 284 yards and two touchdowns on 25 receptions. RB Dylan Edwards is back in the mix, and he’s coming off of a monster 166-yard rushing game vs. UCF. After just 1+ game, he is the team’s leading rusher (179 yards).
- The Wildcats’ updated win total is just 5.5 (+120/-155), and they’re priced at +5500 to win the conference title.
- Kansas State’s offense has been decent this season, ranking 80th in scoring (23.3 PPG), while putting up 314.0 yards per game (113th).
- On the defensive side, the Wildcats are 46th this season, allowing 22.8 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 56th, conceding 364.8 yards per contest.
Bears Maul the Cowboys
As for the Baylor Bears, they had high expectations coming into the new year – especially considering they play in a Big 12 that’s completely up for grabs. However, Coach Dave Aranda and his Bears already have a couple of losses this season. They’re 3-2, dropping two home games to Auburn (38-24) and Arizona State (27-24). Baylor has a ranked victory over #17 SMU (48-45), and following the ASU loss, they cruised past Oklahoma State (45-27). They’re 1-1 in Big 12 play, and have gone 1-4 ATS and 3-2 to the over.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Baylor has an experienced quarterback this season in Sawyer Robinson, and he has actually been quite reliable. The redshirt senior has amassed 1,713 passing yards on a 63.6% completion rate, posting a 17/3 TD/INT ratio along the way. RB Bryson Washington has been a workhorse in the backfield, adding 492 yards and five touchdowns on 93 carries (5.3 YPC). WR Josh Cameron (407 yards, 3 TD) and TE Michael Trigg (284 yards, 4 TD) are two of the weapons in the receiving game.
- Baylor has a win total of 7.5 (+115/-140), and they sit at +2200 to win the Big 12 championship.
- Offensively, the Bears are scoring 35.3 points per game (21st), while averaging 513.3 yards per week (sixth).
- Defensively, they are 114th in the country this year, conceding 34.3 points per game. They’re allowing 430.5 yards per contest, which is 108th.
Kansas State vs. Baylor Pick
Spread Pick for Kansas State vs. Baylor
- Kansas State Wildcats +7.0 (-115) (5 units)
As I mentioned above, K-State has been the laughing stock of the college football world at times this season. However, I can’t think of a better buy-low spot on the Wildcats than in this game.
Really, it boils down to two words: Dylan Edwards. The running back returned in full force last weekend against UCF, and he lit them up for 166 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries (8.3 YPC). He adds a whole different dynamic for the K-State offense, and this should take quite a bit of pressure off the Avery Johnson-Jayce Brown duo in the passing game. Plus, this is a Baylor rush defense that has been gashed this season. The Bears gave up 300+ rushing yards to Auburn in the opener, and are allowing 201.8 rushing yards per game (115th)! Give me the Cats to keep it close.
Over/Under Pick for Kansas State vs. Baylor
- Over 61.5 (-110) (5 units)
This is a huge total, but I think there’s a case to be made for the over. I can see this game landing in the 35-31 or 38-31 range, which would be enough to get us through the 61.5-point threshold. As I mentioned above, I do not trust Baylor’s defense one bit. They’ve allowed 27+ points in four out of their five games, with the lone exception being a 42-7 win over FCS Samford.
Meanwhile, the Bears have a dynamic offense to counter the anticipated success of the Wildcats. Senior quarterback Sawyer Robinson has been a monster this season, averaging 342.6 passing yards per game and tossing 17 total touchdowns. K-State’s defense has risen up at times, but at the end of the day, I don’t see them doing enough against this top-tier Baylor offense. The over is 10-5 in Baylor’s last 15 games, and that’s a trend that I expect to see continue on Saturday afternoon.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
