Kansas State Wildcats vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction and Picks - October 25, 2025
Use Code SSWC Saturday afternoon College Football action within the Big 12, and we have a Kansas State vs Kansas Prediction ready to rock and roll. Kansas State is off a 41-28 home win over TCU to move to 3-4 on the year. The Jayhawks are now at 4-3 on the season after 42-17 road loss to Texas Tech. Continue reading to see our Kansas State vs Kansas prediction.
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Kansas State Rips TCU At Home
Kansas State enters this rivalry game at 3–4, looking to build on a 41–28 win over TCU that showcased their offensive balance. Quarterback Avery Johnson has been the focal point, throwing for over 1,500 yards with 13 touchdowns while also adding more than 200 rushing yards and three scores on the ground. His dual-threat ability has kept defenses honest, and when paired with running back Joe Jackson, who just rushed for 110 yards against TCU, the Wildcats have the tools to control tempo. Their red-zone efficiency has been excellent, converting over 95% of their trips into points, which will be critical against a Kansas defense that has struggled to get stops inside the 20.
The Wildcats’ offensive line has been steady in run blocking, creating lanes for Jackson and giving Johnson enough time to operate. Tight end Garrett Oakley has emerged as a reliable target in the passing game, particularly in the red zone, where his size and hands make him a mismatch. Kansas State’s ability to sustain drives and finish possessions has been a strength, but they’ll need to avoid slow starts, as falling behind early against Kansas’ high-powered offense could put them in a difficult spot.
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Defensively, Kansas State has been opportunistic, ranking 14th nationally in turnover margin. Their ability to force mistakes has often masked issues in coverage, as they’ve given up explosive plays through the air. Against Jalon Daniels and a Kansas passing attack that has been efficient and disciplined, the Wildcats will need to generate pressure and win at the line of scrimmage. If they can disrupt rhythm and create two or more turnovers, they’ll have a chance to extend their long winning streak in this rivalry.
Jayhawks Lose Big To Red Raiders
Kansas comes in at 4–3, still stinging from a 42–17 loss to Texas Tech but encouraged by the play of quarterback Jalon Daniels. Daniels has been one of the most efficient passers in the Big 12, completing nearly 70% of his throws for 1,752 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. His ability to protect the football while still pushing it downfield has been the backbone of the Jayhawks’ offense. Wide receiver Emmanuel Henderson Jr. has been his top target, consistently stretching defenses vertically, while Cam Pickett has provided reliability in the intermediate passing game.
The Jayhawks’ ground game, led by Daniel Hishaw Jr., has been effective in spurts, averaging over five yards per carry. When Kansas establishes balance, their offense becomes difficult to contain, as Daniels can use play-action to open up big plays downfield. The offensive line has been inconsistent, however, and protection breakdowns have stalled drives against stronger defensive fronts. Against Kansas State’s opportunistic defense, keeping Daniels upright and avoiding negative plays will be a top priority.
Defensively, Kansas has been inconsistent, allowing over 23 points per game and ranking near the bottom nationally in red-zone defense, where opponents have scored on more than 95% of their trips. That weakness could be a major factor against a Kansas State team that thrives on finishing drives. Still, the Jayhawks have shown flashes of resilience, particularly in forcing third-and-long situations, and their ability to limit explosive runs will be critical. If they can contain Johnson’s dual-threat ability and keep Jackson from controlling the ground game, Kansas has the offensive firepower to finally snap the Wildcats’ long winning streak in the rivalry.
Kansas State vs Kansas Pick
Kansas State vs Kansas Spread Pick
- Kansas State +3 (4 Units)
Kansas State +3 looks like a sharp side in this rivalry given the way their offense has been trending and the balance they bring into the matchup. Avery Johnson has settled in as a reliable dual-threat quarterback, capable of stretching defenses vertically with his arm while also keeping drives alive with his legs. Pairing him with Joe Jackson in the backfield gives the Wildcats a steady ground game that can control tempo and keep Kansas’ explosive passing attack on the sideline. With Kansas State excelling in red-zone efficiency and showing the ability to finish drives, they’re well-positioned to keep this game tight and potentially swing momentum late.
On the defensive side, the Wildcats’ knack for forcing turnovers is a key factor in why the +3 holds value. Kansas has been efficient offensively, but facing a defense that thrives on pressure and opportunistic plays could disrupt their rhythm. Kansas State’s front seven has the ability to slow down the Jayhawks’ rushing attack, forcing Jalon Daniels into more predictable passing situations where mistakes become more likely. Even if Kansas finds success moving the ball, the Wildcats’ ability to generate takeaways and capitalize on short fields gives them a strong chance to cover the number and extend their dominance in this rivalry.
Kansas State vs Kansas Over/Under Pick
- Over 56 (5 Units)
The Over 56 looks like a strong angle in this Sunflower Showdown because both teams bring offensive firepower and defensive vulnerabilities that point toward a high-scoring affair. Kansas State has found rhythm with Avery Johnson’s dual-threat ability and Joe Jackson’s steady ground game, giving them balance and red-zone efficiency that translates into points. On the other side, Jalon Daniels has been one of the most efficient passers in the Big 12, and with weapons like Emmanuel Henderson Jr., the Jayhawks are capable of striking quickly through the air. With both defenses prone to giving up chunk plays and each offense built to sustain drives or hit explosive shots, this rivalry matchup has all the ingredients to push past 56.
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