Kansas vs. Missouri Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
The Border Showdown is back on for the first time since 2011 and we have the Kansas vs. Missouri predictions you need to get ready. The Jayhawks (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) rolled over Wagner last weekend, 46-7, as -46.5 favorites at home. In their season debut, the Tigers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) smoked Central Arkansas, 61-6, as -38.5 favorites at home. This old rivalry renews with a 3:30 EST kickoff from Memorial Stadium and don’t forget, when it comes to NCAA football selections, our College Football Picks are stellar.
Defense leads Kansas past cupcakes
For the second straight week, the Jayhawks defense stood tall and allowed only seven points as the team cruised to their second win of the season. The team has yet to give up a point in the second half this season and they are tied for second in the country with six sacks.
In last weekend’s win over FCS Wagner, the defense got to the quarterback for three sacks and held them to a grand total of 143 yards. While they stuffed both sides of the Seahawks’ offense, they dominated against the run, allowing 53 yards and just 1.9 per rush. Trey Lathan had 2.5 tackles for loss for Kansas and D.J. Withers recorded two sacks in his season debut after having three all of last season. Against the pass, the Jayhawks gave up just 90 yards through the air, but they did not come up with an interception on the day.
The Kansas offense rattled off 29 first-half points in their win over Wagner as they racked up 631 total yards. They were just 4-10 on third-down chances but were still able to pick up 32 first downs. Led by sixth-year senior Jalon Daniels, the passing game rolled for 346 yards and 10.2 yards per catch. The starting quarterback had 280 yards and four touchdowns, with one interception. Alabama transfer Emmanuel Henderson Jr. was hit top target, catching six passes for 130 yards and two TDs. The offensive line has allowed just one sack over the first two games.
"I've gone to those [basketball games], and obviously the crowd's extremely into it and they're exciting to see," Kansas coach Lance Leipold said via ESPN.com. "You can see that there's an extra intensity during the game."
Game notes
- The defense has recorded 19 tackles for loss, second most in the NCAA.
- Daniel is third in program history with a 62.2% passing percentage.
- The offensive line did not yield a sack last week and the team has allowed only two tackles for loss this season.
- Ball State transfer WR Cam Pickett has 8 catches for 106 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Mizzou handles week one business
The Tigers got the cupcake treatment in their season debut, and they handled things with no issues versus Central Arkansas with their offense growing stronger as the game went on. The defense matched the effort, allowing their opponent to score with just 22 seconds left.
Offensively, they scored nine first-quarter points, then followed it up with at least 14 points in each subsequent quarter of play. The team had 560 total yards of offense, the most that the team had produced since 2010 when they had 675 yards against Southeast Missouri State. Penn State transfer Beau Pribula was solid in his Mizzou debut, going 23-28 for 283 yards and two touchdowns. The senior QB also ran for 65 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries. Louisiana-Monroe transfer Ahmad Hardy averaged 10 yards a carry and punched in a touchdown on the group. Marquis Johnson was the top receiving target, catching five passes for 134 yards and a TD.
On defense, the team gave up just 227 total yards and a last-minute touchdown kept them from pitching a shutout in week one. Central Arkansas was able to gain 15 first downs against the Tigers but were only 2-13 on third down. Mizzou forced two turnovers in the win and got to the quarterback for two sacks. Sophomore linebacker Josiah Trotter, who transferred from West Virginia, led the team with eight tackles, including one for a loss. Georgia transfer Damon Wilson II came up with both team sacks, giving him 5.5 in his career.
"This is deeply seated," Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz told ESPN.com. "There's a lot of hate, and whether it's been basketball games that we've seen, or soccer matches or now football games, we know it's important to the fan base."
Game notes
- The Tigers are 15-2 versus non-conference opponents in the regular season under Drinkwitz.
- Missouri has won 16 of their last 17 games at home.
- Pribula’s 31-yard touchdown run last weekend was the longest by a Mizzou QB since Blaine Gabbert rumbled for 32 yards in 2010.
- Last weekend, nine Tigers recorded a tackle in their debut.
Kansas vs. Missouri Pick
Spread Pick for Kansas vs. Missouri
- Missouri -6.5 (4 units)
This will be the 121st edition of the Border Showdown, but the first in 14 seasons. The wait should be worthwhile as these two teams stack up pretty well against each other. The only issue is, we are not fully sure what either has to offer in this situation, given the fact that neither team has played a power conference side yet. Kansas does have an extra game under their belt, so it would stand to reason that they are more geared up here. However, they didn’t put the wood to Wagner last weekend, when they should have blown them out by more. Missouri did what was expected of them, but they are still very much pulling together a large group of transfer starters and trying to make it work. Pribula looked like a solid choice to lead the offense, showing a dual-threat ability that will keep the opposition on their toes. The Tigers fared well against Central Arkansas and the defense had a standout day. They should be able to slow the speedy Jayhawks down a bit in this matchup and putting pressure on Daniels will go a long way in setting up the defensive secondary for success. Missouri is 56-55-9 SU in the series and being at home will help them outlast the Jayhawks.
Take the Tigers giving the points.
Over/Under pick for Kansas vs. Missouri
- Under 50.5 (5 units)
Both teams have had their offenses explode for big performances over these first couple of weeks of the season, however, neither has faced a strong defense yet. This matchup is going to be a very heated affair, especially given how long it has been since these two have met on the gridiron. The atmosphere alone is going to ratchet up the intensity and with a warm sunny day in the forecast, the offenses will tire earlier. On the other side of the ball, both defenses have done an excellent job thus far. Kansas has applied tons of pressure, and it's paid off in the form of tackles for loss. Missouri’s pass defense is going to make things difficult for Daniels and company and the home crowd is going to make it hard for the Jayhawks to hear themselves think.
Take the under.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $150
