Liberty Flames vs. UTEP Miners Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, October 8, 2025
Use Code SSWC We have an exciting Conference USA game in Week 7 of the college football season as the Liberty Flames will be travelling to the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas on Wednesday night to face off against the UTEP Miners in our Flames vs Miners prediction. The game is airing on CBSSN and these teams are struggling so far this season. The Flames (1-4, 0-1 CUSA) are on a four-game losing streak as they are coming off a 21-7 road loss to the Old Dominion Monarchs on Sept. 27. The Miners (1-4, 0-1) are on a three-game losing streak as they are coming off Sept. 27’s 30-11 home loss against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. College gridiron clarity — NCAAF picks for Liberty Flames vs. UTEP Miners with key matchups.
Flames Looking to Heat Up
The Liberty Flames have not played since Sept. 27 in a road loss against the Old Dominion Monarchs 21-7. Liberty could not get much going as the team scored seven points on 203 total yards of offense (77 passing, 126 rushing). Quarterback Michael Merdinger recorded his first start of his career as he completed 6-of-11 passes for 77 yards without a touchdown or an interception due to a shoulder injury to starter Ethan Vasko, who could play in this game. Liberty was only able to record 11 total first downs while the team committed three turnovers (two fumbles lost, one interception). The team was also undisciplined as they committed 10 penalties, which cost them 70 yards.
The defense struggled to get off the field and get stops as the Flames allowed the Monarchs to score 21 points on 489 total yards (271 passing, 218 rushing). The biggest positive was that Liberty won the turnover battle, forcing four takeaways (three fumbles, one interception). However, the team could not get pressure as they had a pair of sacks, one pass deflection, and four tackles for loss. Old Dominion was able to move the football at ease when they weren’t turning it over as they averaged 10.4 yards per pass attempt and 4.8 yards per rush.
Liberty’s offense has not scored many points as they rank 126th in college football with only 18.2 points per game. Their defense has been holding things down as they are also tied for 65th in the nation with 23.2 points per game given up.
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Injury Report for Liberty
- Quarterback Ethan Vasko: Shoulder/Arm (Questionable)
- Offensive guard Trey Bedosky: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Running back Vaughn Blue: Lower Body (Questionable)
- Defensive lineman Markus Clark: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Safety Brylan Green: Lower Body (Doubtful)
- Offensive guard Cal Grubbs: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Quarterback Ryan Burger: Concussion (OUT)
Miners Looking to Get Back on Track
The UTEP Miners are looking to bounce back from Sept. 27’s 30-11 home loss against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. Their offense struggled as they recorded 11 points on 273 total yards of offense (147 passing, 126 rushing) while recording 15 total first downs. Quarterback Malachi Nelson was benched after throwing four interceptions, and backup Skyler Locklear finished the game by completing 4-of-6 passes for 74 yards with one passing touchdown and one interception while also adding a six-yard rushing attempt. The team committed five turnovers (all interceptions,) and the team only averaged 3.3 yards per pass attempt.
The defense allowed 30 points to 232 total yards (137 passing, 95 rushing) and the team was just 4-for-14 on third downs against the Miners. However, one positive is the fact that UTEP was able to force four turnovers (three fumble recoveries, one interception) in the game. The Miners were also able to dominate as they gave up 2.3 yards per rushing attempt while getting pressure with five sacks, five pass deflections, and nine tackles for loss. The defense stepped up with pressure, but needs to improve at keeping points off the board.
UTEP has been unable to score well throughout the first handful of weeks, as they are 114th in the NCAA with 20.8 points per game. Their defense has been doing a bit better as their 26.6 points per game given up places them 92nd in college football.
Injury Report for UTEP
- Wide receiver Jaden Smith: Knee (OUT)
- Linebacker Nate Dyman: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Running back Kam Thomas: Lower Body (OUT)
Liberty Flames vs. UTEP Miners Pick
Spread Pick for Liberty Flames vs. UTEP
- Liberty Flames -1.5 (5 units)
With the spread being just 1.5 points, this is basically picking a winner with a one-point victory is very rare in college football. UTEP has a quarterback issue as Malachi Nelson is throwing for yards and touchdowns, but has an issue with turning the ball over as well. Nelson is expected to remain the starting quarterback this week, despite getting benched in their most recent game, but the turnover rate is going to be difficult not to factor in. When looking at the ability to move the ball on third downs, there is a difference as well, with the Flames being able to convert on 30-of-73 (41.1%) of their attempts, while the Miners are 26-of-76 (34.21%) of their tries. Liberty is 2-0 against UTEP as they played in 2023 and 2024, with the average margin of victory being 16.0 points, so go with the Liberty Flames to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Liberty Flames vs. UTEP
- OVER 47.5 (4 units)
With both teams having extended rest heading into this matchup, they should be able to do well offensively. Both teams turned the football over at way too large of a rate in their most recent game, but if that were to happen again, then the short fields typically equate to more points being scored. There seems to be an expectation that Ethan Vasko could return for this game and that will significantly help the offense take another step and keep drives going for the Flames. All in all, go with OVER 47.5 POINTS in this game as well.
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