Lindenwood vs Missouri State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The Lindenwood Lions travel to Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Missouri, to face the Missouri State Bears on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Lindenwood enters at 1-1 after a 36-32 loss at Stony Brook, while Missouri State is 0-1 after opening with a 50-0 loss at No. 8 Texas A&M. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Lindenwood Has Enough Offense to Be Dangerous

Lindenwood had Stony Brook in serious trouble before allowing a fourth-quarter comeback in a 36-32 defeat. The Lions led 22-7 at halftime and 32-23 early in the fourth quarter before surrendering the final 13 points.

Pops Battle completed 19 of 28 passes for 209 yards and also rushed for 53 yards and two touchdowns. Jared Rhodes added 59 rushing yards and a score, while Drew Krobath caught five passes for 81 yards. Lindenwood finished with 364 total yards and held possession for more than 32 minutes.

The defensive collapse is the concern, as Stony Brook finished with 402 yards and scored 29 second-half points. Still, Lindenwood has already shown enough offensive ability to make this an interesting matchup against a Missouri State team that couldn't get anything going in College Station.

Missouri State Comes Home After a Nightmare Opener

Missouri State couldn't have faced a much tougher opening assignment, visiting No. 8 Texas A&M and losing 50-0. The Bears were overwhelmed offensively, finishing with only 67 total yards and four first downs.

Missouri State crossed midfield only twice and spent much of the evening going three-and-out against one of the country's more talented defenses. That performance needs context because Lindenwood obviously isn't Texas A&M, but the Bears still have to prove they can consistently move the football under new head coach Casey Woods.

This becomes a much better opportunity at home. Missouri State owns the FBS scholarship advantage and should have considerably more success at the line of scrimmage, but laying a large number after that opening performance would be difficult to justify.

Lindenwood vs Missouri State Picks and Prediction

Pick: Lindenwood +14.5 or Better

With no dependable conventional line available, Lindenwood +14.5 or better is my target. Missouri State should look dramatically better than it did against Texas A&M, but the Bears still have to prove they can generate enough offense to win comfortably. Lindenwood has already scored 52 points through two games and produced 364 yards at Stony Brook. Getting more than two touchdowns would provide enough cushion to back the FCS visitor.

Pick: Over 47.5

I'll target the Over 47.5. Lindenwood's 36-32 loss showed both sides of its profile: the Lions can move the football, but their defense can also surrender points quickly. Missouri State should find dramatically more room against Lindenwood than it did against Texas A&M. If the total opens in the upper 40s, the matchup offers enough offensive upside to get into the 50s. Take the Over if the total is set at 47.5 or lower.

Final Picks: Lindenwood +14.5 or better and Over 47.5 or lower