Louisiana Tech vs. Missouri State, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 29, 2025
The Missouri State Bears (7-4, 5-5 CUSA) will host the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-5, 5-2 CUSA) at Robert W. Plaster Stadium on Saturday in a Conference USA matchup. Kickoff is slated for 2:00 PM Eastern, as Missouri State looks to get back in the win column. Read on for the Louisiana Tech vs the Missouri State prediction and more free NCAAF picks.
Bulldogs Outlasted In OT
LA Tech was able to rally against the Liberty Flames, scoring 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to force overtime. The Bulldogs were led by Trey Kukuk, who completed 13/20 for 118 yards. He was more formidable on the ground as he garnered two scores and 143 yards on 19 carries. Andrew Burnette added three rushing scores as well. Louisiana Tech finished with over 430 yards of offense, with more than 300 of those coming on the ground. The defense came away with four interceptions and added a sack.
Louisiana Tech enters this contest averaging 26.6 points per game, putting them in the middle tier nationally. The Bulldogs generate 363.7 total yards per game, with a run-heavy approach producing over 180 rushing yards per contest at 4.5 yards per carry. Through the air, they add 180.4 passing yards per game, though they've fallen to the bottom 20 in interception rate. Third-down efficiency sits at 40.94%, which has them right inside the top 50 in the nation, and their 78.8% red-zone scoring rate has kept them competitive. Louisiana Tech has been decent at staying ahead of the sticks, but the offense continues to battle inconsistency in sustaining long drives, as teams are able to key in on the ground attack.
Key Team Stats:
- Points per Game: 26.6
- 3rd-Down Conversion Rate: 40.94%
- Red Zone Scoring Rate: 78.8%
On the defensive end, Louisiana Tech is allowing 22.5 points per game, which ranks them at 40th in America. Opponents are averaging 382.8 total yards per contest, with the Bulldogs giving up around 150 on the ground and 237.1 through the air. They are allowing 5.4 yards per play, which is evidence of the defense's ability not to give up the big, chunk plays. They have struggled getting off the field on 3rd downs as foes are moving the sticks at a 39% clip, but the red zone defense remains one of the best in America, with foes coming away with six or more just 78.13% of the time.
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Bears' 5 Game Streak Snapped
Missouri State was unable to slow Kennesaw State as they fell in a 41-34 final. The Bears were led by Jacob Clark, who completed 23/32 for 344 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. Shomari Lawrence led the ground game with 173 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown. The pass rush got to the quarterback five times and forced one fumble.
Missouri State enters this contest averaging 23.3 points per game. Their total offense produces about 386.9 yards per game, which has them right outside the top 60 in the country. With roughly 270.6 passing yards per outing and 116.2 rushing yards per game. They average 5.94 yards per play, but the offense has struggled to stay on the field as they have one of the lowest 3rd down conversion rates in America. What's more, Missouri State has one of the leakiest pass protections in all of football, as they are giving up a sack on over 10% of their drop-backs. Allowing the run game to get early momentum will be crucial here.
Missouri State Key Stats:
- Points Per Game: 25.0
- 3rd Down Conversion Rate: 32.09%
- Red Zone Conversion Rate: 82.86%
On defense, the Bears are allowing 28.8 points per game, placing them at 89th in the country. Opponents gain about 5.74 yards per play against them on average, yielding 414.2 total yards per game allowed. On the ground, Missouri State is giving up around 4.5 yards per rush attempt, and the pass defense hasn't fared much better. The pass rush has struggled to get to the backfield, and the Bears are hovering around the bottom 30 as opposing quarterbacks are completing 65% of their throws. Given LA Tech's affinity for the ground game, look for the Bears to keep the box stuffed here.
Louisiana Tech vs Missouri State Pick
Spread Pick for Louisiana Tech vs Missouri State
- Missouri State -2.5 (4 Units)
Louisiana Tech has not been a good road team this season, winning just one of its five away games. What's more, the Bulldogs have an offense that is somewhat telegraphed as they run the football at a top-20 rate. Missouri State has been vulnerable with pass protection, but we haven't seen the Bulldogs pose a consistent pass rush this season, as they have one of the lowest sack rates in America. Along with that, Missouri State has done a solid job defending the run this season, as they are hovering around the top 50 in ground yards allowed per game. Look for the Bears to cover at home.
Missouri State -2.5
Total Pick for Louisiana Tech vs Missouri State
- Under 49.5 (4 units)
Given how the Bulldogs have leaned on the run all season, we should expect that trend to continue here and ultimately keep the clock churning. The Bears have struggled in 3rd down situations this season, and neither offense has been particularly dangerous in the red zone this season. While LA Tech's pass rush hasn't been there, the secondary has been able to force turnovers at a high rate, which should ultimately keep the Missouri State offense honest and from getting into any long-sustained rhythm. Look for both defenses to showcase their strengths here. The combined last 20 games these two have played in this season are 5-15 to the under. Look for that trend to continue.
Under 49.5
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