Louisiana vs. Troy Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 25, 2025
Use Code SSWC In a Sun Belt clash facing two teams heading in different directions, Troy plays host to Louisiana. Troy (5-2, 3-0 Sun Belt) has reeled off four straight wins and is tied with Southern Miss atop the Sun Belt West Division, while Louisiana (2-5, 1-2 Sun Belt) has lost two in a row and four of their last five games. Let’s get to the conference matchup here in this Louisiana vs. Troy prediction!
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Troy is nearly a double-digit favorite posted at -9.5 with a total of 47.5.
Oh, What Could Have Been for Louisiana
Louisiana had their chances, but turnovers killed them in a 22-10 loss to Southern Miss. They were only outgained by 15 yards (371-356), held them to 2-13 on third down, and rushed for 221 yards they had three costly turnovers while forcing two. Lunch Winfield passed for 112 yards with no TD and a pick, was one of three players with at least 55 rushing yards with 98 yards and a TD, and Caden Jensen led the way with 45 yards receiving. The Ragin’ Cajuns failed to cover as a 5-point underdog and they had covered in their previous two games.
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Louisiana is a run-first team that does not rank in the top 94 in the nation in scoring, points allowed per game, or passing yards per game. They are bad against the run (204 yards per game), ranking 129th in the nation. Winfield had two TDs in two straight games before the last one and has also rushed for at least 98 yards in two of the last three games. He also has four rushing TDs on the season. The two players that must get it done for the upset in this game are the top two running backs of Zylan Perry and Bill Davis, who have combined for 867 yards and eight TDs. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 0-3 on the road, and last season at home, they beat Troy in a barnburner 51-30.
Turnovers Help Troy, Big Time
In their last game, Troy was outgained and only rushed for 91 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry but forced four turnovers and did not commit one in a 37-14 win over UL Monroe. They lost the time of possession battle and had 12 fewer yards but the timely turnovers helped them to a 23-point win. Tucker Kilcrease passed for 223 yards with a TD, Tae Meadows had 67 rushing yards and a score, and Tray Taylor led the team with 89 receiving yards and a TD. The Trojans covered as a 4.5-point favorite and they have covered the spread in every game in their four-game win streak.
Troy is a team with a balanced but not high-scoring offense (28.3 ppg) and their defense has been decent, at best, ranking tied for 72nd, giving up an average of 24.4 ppg. Kilcrease (1.054 yards 9 TD2 INT) has eight TD and only one pick in the last three games but has been sacked at least four times in three of the last five games. Meadows (498 yards 4 TD) has rushed for at least 66 yards in three of the last four games, but is listed as doubtful for this game with an undisclosed injury. Four players have over 200 receiving yards, led by Taylor (330 yards 3 TD). The Trojans will face a Louisiana D that ranks 43rd in the nation against the pass but fifth-to-last against the run.
Louisiana vs. Troy Pick
Spread Pick for Louisiana vs. Troy
- Troy -9.5 (+4 Units)
Troy has totaled 85 points in their last two games and in their last game, they put up 37 points and won in a blowout despite being outgained. Louisiana only scored 10 points in their last game, even rushing for over 220 yards. The Trojans are not great on offense or defense but have gotten it done when it matters and have won four in a row. The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost two in a row and four of five games and one of their two wins came facing an FCS team. Regarding the Louisiana vs. Troy prediction, the Trojans will continue to play well, and they will win and cover facing a Ragin’ Cajuns team that has major issues on offense and defense.
Over/Under Pick for Louisiana vs. Troy
- Over 47.5 (4 units)
The total has gone Over for the last three games for Troy and that is the pick I am leaning towards in this game. The Trojans have totaled 85 points in their last two games, even though they have not been a high-scoring team on the season. However, they will put another high total on the scoreboard in this game, facing a Louisiana defense that has struggled and has one of the worst run defenses in the nation. The Ragin’ Cajuns have only totaled 24 points in their last two games but will be decent on offense in this gam,e facing a Trojans team that was not great on defense in their last game but forced four turnovers. This game will not be a full-on shootout, but because Troy will score big for their third game in a row, the Over is the pick.
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