Louisiana vs USC Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns travel to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California, to face the No. 14 USC Trojans on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 PM ET on Big Ten Network. Louisiana enters at 1-0 following a convincing 38-7 victory over Lamar, while USC is 2-0 after shutting out Fresno State 39-0. The current betting market has USC favored by approximately 29 points. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Louisiana Ground Game Looks Ready for a Bigger Test

Louisiana opened its season with an impressive 38-7 victory over Lamar, controlling the matchup with its running game and an opportunistic defense. The Ragin' Cajuns accumulated 474 total yards, including 243 on the ground. Lunch Winfield completed 15 of 21 passes for 189 yards and added 84 rushing yards and a touchdown. Darrell Smith also rushed for 84 yards, needing only 10 carries while scoring twice. Caden Jensen led the receiving corps with five catches for 77 yards.

Louisiana scored all five of its offensive touchdowns on the ground and averaged 5.9 yards per rushing attempt. The Cajuns finished with 26 first downs and scored 28 points before halftime. The defense also created four turnovers. Louisiana intercepted three passes, recovered a fumble and recorded three sacks while limiting Lamar to 205 total yards and only 56 rushing yards. Lamar's lone touchdown came on an interception return, meaning Louisiana's defense didn't allow an offensive touchdown.

That performance provides plenty of encouragement, but USC represents a massive increase in competition. Louisiana's best chance of staying within this large spread is establishing its running game, controlling possession and preventing USC from generating the explosive passing plays that destroyed Fresno State.

USC Defense Becoming a Major Story

USC followed its opening victory over San Jose State with a thoroughly dominant 39-0 win over Fresno State. The Trojans are now 2-0 and appear significantly improved defensively under coordinator Gary Patterson. USC outgained Fresno State 552-116, limiting the Bulldogs to 77 passing yards and 39 rushing yards. Fresno State averaged only 2.6 yards per play, while USC recorded two safeties and forced two turnovers.

Jayden Maiava was nearly flawless. He completed 23 of 25 passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns while playing only one series after halftime. Maiava has now thrown only six incompletions through USC's first two games. Freshman Trent Mosley caught four passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns, including a 68-yard score. Kayden Dixon-Wyatt added six receptions for 102 yards, giving USC multiple explosive options in the passing game.

The Trojans accumulated 412 passing yards against Fresno State and held possession for nearly 39 minutes. They also built a 30-0 halftime advantage, allowing Lincoln Riley to protect his starters for much of the second half. USC has now played two home games and gets another one before beginning Big Ten play at Rutgers. The Trojans should control this matchup, but another enormous spread forces bettors to decide how much Louisiana's strong opener matters.

Louisiana vs USC Picks and Prediction

Pick: Louisiana +29

Louisiana +29 is my preferred side. USC is clearly the better team and could dominate this matchup, but we're getting more than four touchdowns with a Louisiana team that just produced 474 yards, rushed for 243 and held its opponent's offense without a touchdown. The Cajuns' ability to run the football gives them a chance to shorten possessions, while USC has little incentive to keep Maiava and other starters on the field deep into the second half if it builds another large advantage. Louisiana doesn't need to make this competitive for four quarters; it simply needs enough offense to avoid a complete blowout. Take Louisiana +29.

Pick: Under 57.5

The Under 57.5 is my preferred total target. USC's defense just limited Fresno State to 116 yards and has the talent to make Louisiana's offense look much different than it did against Lamar. At the same time, Louisiana's preferred offensive approach revolves around a ground game that can drain clock. USC could score into the upper 30s or low 40s without this game reaching the Over. A result around 41-13 or 42-10 fits the matchup. Take the Under if the total is set at 57.5 or higher.

Final Picks: Louisiana +29 and Under 57.5 or higher