Louisville vs Ole Miss Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 6 2026

Louisville and Ole Miss meet in one of the more intriguing neutral-site games of college football's opening weekend on Sunday, September 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee, with ABC carrying the game nationally. Both teams enter at 0-0. Ole Miss is currently favored by 6.5 points, with Louisville getting +6.5. The total is set at 55.5, while the Rebels are approximately -250 on the moneyline and Louisville is around +210. Get into the action with our free college football picks.

Louisville Gets Nearly a Touchdown

Louisville enters the season with a difficult assignment, but the Cardinals are getting almost a full touchdown on a neutral field. That's an important distinction. Ole Miss doesn't have the benefit of playing this game in Oxford, so the Rebels have to establish themselves as clearly superior without a conventional home-field advantage.

The opening number was closer to Ole Miss -7 before settling around -6.5. That isn't dramatic movement, but it does give Louisville bettors the opportunity to grab the Cardinals beyond the key number of six.

Louisville's objective should be keeping the game manageable early. Ole Miss has the type of offensive profile that can create separation quickly when opponents give away possessions or field position. The Cardinals need to prevent the Rebels from building a two-score lead and forcing them away from their preferred game plan.

If Louisville remains within one possession entering the fourth quarter, +6.5 becomes extremely valuable.

Ole Miss Has the Stronger Market Profile

Ole Miss deserves to be favored despite playing at a neutral site. The Rebels are roughly -250 on the moneyline, while the current spread has stabilized around -6.5. Analytical projections are also relatively bullish on Ole Miss. One current model makes the Rebels approximately a nine-point favorite, while another simulation projects a margin closer to 13.5 points.

That's enough for me to take the market's hint seriously. The total has also moved upward. It opened around 53.5 at some books before reaching 55.5, indicating greater expectations for offensive production.

That type of game could favor Ole Miss. If the Rebels establish the scoring pace and force Louisville to respond possession after possession, the favorite has a better opportunity to eventually create the touchdown-plus separation needed to cover. Louisville is capable of making this competitive, but at less than a touchdown, I'm willing to lay the points.

Louisville vs Ole Miss Picks and Prediction

Pick: Ole Miss -6.5

I'm taking Ole Miss -6.5. Louisville getting nearly a touchdown is tempting, but the Rebels grade as the stronger side in several current analytical projections, and we're still laying less than seven on a neutral field. The market opened closer to -7 before settling at -6.5, giving Ole Miss bettors a slightly better entry point. My projected score is approximately Ole Miss 31, Louisville 23, which creates enough separation to cover without requiring the Rebels to dominate the game. Take Ole Miss -6.5.

Pick: Under 55.5

I'm taking Under 55.5 after the total's move upward from the opening range. This doesn't need to become a defensive struggle to cash an Under ticket. Something like 31-23 gets us to 54, while 30-23 or 31-21 provides additional breathing room. Louisville's best chance to stay competitive should involve preventing Ole Miss from creating a fast-paced shootout, and that game plan fits our total position. Take Under 55.5.

Final Picks: Ole Miss -6.5 and Under 55.5