LSU Tigers vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction and Picks - November 29, 2025
Saturday evening, College football action, and we have an LSU vs Oklahoma prediction locked and loaded for you. The Tigers come into this game off a 13-10 home win over Western Kentucky to move to 7-4 on the year. Oklahoma comes in at 9-2 on the year and they are off a 17-6 home win over Missouri. LSU won last year's meeting 37-17 at home. Can Oklahoma get some revenge in this one? Read on to see our LSU vs Oklahoma prediction.
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LSU Barely Beats Western Kentucky
LSU’s most recent game was a 13-10 win over Western Kentucky on November 22, a defensive struggle where the Tigers leaned on their front seven and a pair of Damian Ramos field goals to hold off the Hilltoppers. Michael Van Buren Jr. threw a second-quarter touchdown pass to Tre Green, and the defense forced a late fumble to preserve the victory. It was LSU’s second straight win after edging Arkansas the week before, pushing them to 7-4 overall.
The Tigers have not been explosive offensively this season, averaging just 22.6 points per game (106th nationally) and 344.9 total yards per contest. Garrett Nussmeier and Van Buren have split time under center, with Nussmeier throwing for nearly 2,000 yards and 12 touchdowns. The ground game has been inconsistent, averaging 108.2 rushing yards per game, though freshman Caden Durham has shown flashes with 463 yards and three scores. LSU’s passing attack has leaned on Barion Brown, who leads the team with 486 receiving yards, but overall production has been modest.
Defensively, LSU has been the strength of the team, allowing just 18.5 points per game (16th nationally) and holding opponents to 313 total yards per contest. Harold Perkins Jr. anchors the front seven with four sacks, while safety A.J. Haulcy leads the team with 82 tackles. The Tigers have been particularly effective against the pass, limiting opponents to 192 yards per game, and their ability to force turnovers has kept them competitive even when the offense stalls. Against Oklahoma’s balanced attack, LSU will need another strong defensive showing to stay in the fight.
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Sooners Are Led By Their Defense
Oklahoma’s last outing was a 17-6 win over Missouri on November 22, a game where the Sooners’ defense dominated, holding the Tigers to just 70 rushing yards. Quarterback John Mateer threw two touchdown passes, including an 87-yard strike to Isaiah Sategna, and the defense shut out Missouri in the second half. It was Oklahoma’s third straight win over a ranked opponent, following victories at Alabama and Tennessee, and it kept their playoff hopes alive heading into this matchup with LSU.
The Sooners’ offense has been steady, averaging 27.3 points per game (72nd nationally) and 350.1 total yards per contest. Mateer has thrown for 2,260 yards with 10 touchdowns, spreading the ball to playmakers like Sategna, who leads the team with 827 receiving yards and six scores. The ground game has been serviceable, averaging 128.2 rushing yards per game, with Xavier Robinson contributing 408 yards and four touchdowns. Oklahoma doesn’t overwhelm with explosive numbers, but they’ve been efficient enough to complement their defense.
Defensively, Oklahoma has been elite, allowing just 14 points per game (6th nationally) and holding opponents to 280.5 total yards per contest. The front seven has been stout against the run, giving up only 81.1 rushing yards per game, while the secondary has limited big plays. Linebacker Kip Lewis leads the unit with 68 tackles, and defensive lineman R. Thomas has 6.5 sacks. The Sooners have thrived on forcing turnovers and shutting teams down after halftime, a formula that has carried them through the SEC gauntlet. Against LSU’s struggling offense, Oklahoma’s defense will look to control the game and keep their playoff push intact.
LSU vs Oklahoma Pick
LSU vs Oklahoma Spread Pick
- Oklahoma -10.5 (4 Units)
Oklahoma -10.5 looks like the right side because the Sooners have been dominant defensively, holding opponents to just 14 points per game (6th nationally) and allowing only 280.5 total yards per contest. Their front seven has been outstanding against the run, giving up just 81.1 rushing yards per game, which matches up perfectly against an LSU offense that has struggled to establish consistency on the ground. With John Mateer managing the offense efficiently and Isaiah Sategna providing explosive plays in the passing game, Oklahoma has the balance to build an early lead and force LSU into uncomfortable passing situations.
On the other side, LSU’s offense has been one of the weaker units in the SEC, averaging just 22.6 points per game (106th nationally) and 344.9 total yards per contest. While their defense has kept them competitive, allowing only 18.5 points per game, the Tigers simply don’t have the firepower to keep pace with Oklahoma’s efficiency. The Sooners have shown they can grind out wins against ranked opponents, and their ability to control tempo with a suffocating defense makes them well-positioned to cover the double-digit spread. This matchup tilts heavily toward Oklahoma’s strengths, making -10.5 a justified play.
LSU vs Oklahoma Over/Under Pick
- Under 36 (5 Units)
The Under 36 makes sense here because both LSU and Oklahoma have leaned heavily on their defenses all season, with the Sooners allowing just 14 points per game (6th nationally) and LSU giving up only 18.5 (16th nationally). Neither offense has been explosive—LSU averages 22.6 points per game, while Oklahoma sits at 27.3—and both teams tend to grind out possessions rather than push tempo. With two top-tier defenses colliding and both offenses prone to long stretches without scoring, this matchup profiles as a low-scoring battle where points are at a premium, making the Under the sharper angle.
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