Memphis Tigers vs. Florida Atlantic Owls Prediction and Picks – Saturday, September 27
Use Code SSWC The Memphis Tigers will open AAC conference play with a visit to the Florida Atlantic Owls, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Memphis vs. FAU prediction. Memphis is 4-0 heading into this matchup and coming off a 32-31 photo finish victory over Arkansas, while Florida Atlantic is coming off a bye week following a loss to rival Florida International in Week 3. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM ET at Flagler Credit Union Stadium on Saturday, September 27.
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Memphis continues dominant streak with Arkansas win
After pulling off a minor upset in their 32-31 road win over Arkansas last week, the Memphis Tigers are now 9-0 straight up and 8-0-1 against the spread in their last nine games dating back to 2024. Memphis entered the matchup as seven-point underdogs—only the second game in their current streak that they weren't favored to win, joining their 34-24 road win over Tulane last season. Heading into a matchup against an Owls team that's struggled mightily to win or cover in recent games, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about the Tigers in Week 5.
Memphis' win over Arkansas was a high-scoring affair on both sides, but the Tigers won out in the metrics that mattered most. Junior back Sutton Smith ran 64 yards for the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, finishing the game with 147 yards on 12 carries. Brendon Lewis, on a day when his passing performance was unremarkable, carried the team to victory with 103 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Cortez Braham Jr. dominated the Tigers' passing game, catching seven of Lewis' 15 completed passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. The Tigers finished with 489 yards to the Razorbacks' 500, and were similarly close in turnovers and first downs, but converted on third down six of 13 times while holding the Razorbacks to three conversions on ten attempts.
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The Tigers outscored their first three opponents this season – Chattanooga, Georgia State, and Troy – by a combined total of 111-33. They'll look for something closer to that level of dominance when they visit the Owls this week.
Owls sunk by turnovers against rival Panthers
They've since had a bye week to recover, but the Florida Atlantic Owls looked rough in their 28-38 loss to the Florida International Panthers in Week 4. The box score tells the story of a team that lost on turnovers; the play-by-play tells the story of a team that was lucky to finish the game within 10 points of their opponent.
Junior quarterback Caden Veltkamp started the proceedings early, launching his first pass attempt of the day into the hands of Panthers defensive back Shamir Sterlin to end the Owls' first drive. The Owls turned the ball over on downs – something they'd go on to do several times this game – after four plays to end their second drive. Veltkamp jammed a couple of touchdown drives in during the second quarter, between a second drive that ended on downs and an end-of-half drive that ended with his second interception. The second half saw the Owls end two more drives on downs and Veltkamp throw a third interception – they'd have been held off the scoreboard for the half if Jarvis Johnson didn't return a blocked punt for a touchdown.
By game's end, the Owls had blundered their way into losing a game that the Panthers finished with fewer yards, fewer first downs, and only three third-down conversions on 12 attempts. Veltkamp has now thrown seven interceptions across 100 pass attempts against FBS competition this season. Between that performance and the 11 penalties – which cost them 92 yards – against the Panthers, this team entered their bye week with a lot of work to do if they wanted to look competitive against Memphis. We'll see on Saturday if they made any progress.
Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic Pick
Spread Pick for Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic
- Memphis -14.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Tigers have covered the spread in each of their games this season and each of their last seven games since November 2024. The Owls, conversely, are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games, only covering in wins against Tulsa and FCS Florida A&M. From what these teams showed us in their last games, respectively, it'd be a significant upset if the Owls kept this game within two touchdowns. Memphis' streak of covering the spread won't go on forever, but I wouldn't bet on it ending here.
Over/Under Pick for Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic
- Under 62.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Owls' last game against the Panthers hit over the total line of 56.0, but it's hard to imagine the Owls giving up field position so liberally again or stealing another fourth-quarter touchdown on a blocked punt. Their only other game against an FBS opponent this season ended in a 39-7 loss at Maryland.
Before their fireworks show with Arkansas last week, the Team Total Under went 3-0 through Memphis' first three games against Chattanooga, Georgia State, and Troy. None of those three games had a pregame total line above 60 points.
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