Memphis vs Boise St. Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The Memphis Tigers travel to Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, to face the Boise State Broncos on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. Memphis enters at 1-0 after defeating UNLV 27-24, while Boise State is also 1-0 following a convincing 38-14 victory over Washington State. The current betting market has Boise State favored by 7.5 points with the total at 53.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Memphis Survives a Tough Opening Test

Memphis opened its season with a quality 27-24 home victory over UNLV. The Tigers generated 406 total yards, including 245 through the air and 161 on the ground, while putting together the decisive scoring drive late in the fourth quarter.

Antwann Hill Jr. completed 21 of 33 passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns in his Memphis debut. Sutton Smith led the rushing attack with 84 yards on 17 carries, while Brandon White finished with 91 receiving yards and a touchdown. Memphis demonstrated good offensive balance and averaged more than five yards per play against a UNLV team expected to compete near the top of the Mountain West.

The Tigers did allow UNLV to generate 381 total yards, including 202 on the ground. That becomes an important concern heading to Boise because the Broncos have traditionally been most dangerous when they can establish the run and keep their offense out of obvious passing situations. Memphis will also be making a difficult road trip into one of the tougher Group of Five environments in college football.

Boise State Controls Washington State

Boise State began its season with an impressive 38-14 victory over Washington State. The Broncos generated 447 total yards, including 259 rushing yards, and steadily pulled away after taking a 17-7 advantage into halftime.

Max Cutforth completed 16 of 23 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns without throwing an interception. Sire Gaines powered the rushing attack with 126 yards and two touchdowns, while Dylan Riley added 78 yards on the ground. Boise State’s ability to consistently win at the line of scrimmage allowed the Broncos to control the pace and keep Washington State’s offense on the sideline.

The defensive performance was equally encouraging. Boise State held Washington State to 14 points and prevented the Cougars from consistently sustaining drives. Now the Broncos stay home at Albertsons Stadium against a Memphis team that surrendered more than 200 rushing yards in its opener. That creates a clear matchup advantage for Boise State.

Memphis vs Boise St. Picks and Prediction

Pick: Boise State -7.5

Boise State -7.5 is my preferred side. Memphis looked solid against UNLV, but allowing 202 rushing yards is concerning when facing a Boise State offense that just produced 259 yards on the ground. Gaines gives the Broncos a physical runner capable of consistently keeping the offense ahead of schedule, and Cutforth protected the football while completing nearly 70 percent of his attempts in the opener. Playing on the blue turf adds another advantage. The hook above seven makes this slightly less attractive, but Boise State has enough matchup edges to create separation. Take Boise State -7.5.

Pick: Over 53.5

The Over 53.5 is my preferred total. Memphis generated 406 yards and scored 27 against a solid UNLV defense, while Boise State produced 447 yards and 38 points against Washington State. Both teams showed offensive balance in their openers, and Memphis’ problems defending the run should give Boise State plenty of scoring opportunities. The Tigers also have enough passing-game production to contribute rather than requiring Boise State to carry the total. A game around 34-24 or 35-24 gets us there. Take Over 53.5.

Final Picks: Boise State -7.5 and Over 53.5