Memphis vs. NC State Odds, Line Movement, Picks, and Prediction for Gasparilla Bowl December 19 2025
Memphis vs NC State picks headline the bowl slate as these two programs meet with very different postseason narratives, and this breakdown is part of our college football picks coverage. NC State enters bowl season searching for its first postseason win in several years, while Memphis faces transition and uncertainty with an interim staff guiding the Tigers into this matchup.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread: NC State -5.5
- Total: Under 58
- Projected Final Score: NC State 31, Memphis 24
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Stats to Know for Memphis vs NC State
- NC State has lost five straight bowl games and has not won one since 2017.
- Memphis has won its last four bowl games played.
- NC State played a top-30 schedule this season.
- Memphis enters the bowl after losing three straight games to close the regular season.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Memphis | +5.5 (-105) | 58 |
| NC State | -5.5 (-115) | 58 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Memphis | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| 12/15 | +5.5 (-105) | -5.5 (-115) |
| 12/13 | +5.5 (+100) | -5.5 (-122) |
| 12/09 | +6 (-110) | -6 (-110) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 12/16 | 58.5 (-115) | 58.5 (-105) |
| 12/15 | 58 (-105) | 58 (-115) |
| 12/10 | 57 (-110) | 57 (-110) |
Memphis vs NC State Game Preview and Analysis
NC State enters this bowl game looking to snap a prolonged postseason drought, as the Wolfpack have lost their last five bowl appearances and last tasted bowl victory back in 2017. Dave Doeren’s team, however, appears to be approaching this game with the right mindset. NC State closed the season strong, winning three of its final four games, including outright upset victories over Georgia Tech and Florida State.
Memphis comes into bowl season from a very different place. The Tigers finished the year on a three-game losing streak, and the program is in transition with former head coach Ryan Silverfield departing for Arkansas. Defensive backs coach Reggie Howard is expected to serve as the interim head coach, and that shift in leadership is a notable concern for a team whose identity has been built around offense.
NC State head coach Dave Doeren has indicated that the Wolfpack are preparing to see Memphis starting quarterback Brendon Lewis, and there has been relatively little noise around opt-outs for the Tigers. Even so, stripping away offensive coaches and placing a defensive interim head coach in charge is a tough sell in a bowl environment, especially against a Wolfpack team that played one of the more challenging schedules in the country.
From a matchup standpoint, NC State’s ability to withstand adversity and compete against upper-level competition stands out. Memphis’ recent struggles, combined with staff turnover and late-season momentum issues, suggest the Tigers could have difficulty sustaining offense for four quarters against a focused Wolfpack squad.
Key Injuries and Notes (MEM and NCST)
- Memphis will be coached by interim head coach Reggie Howard.
- Former Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield has departed for Arkansas.
- NC State reports positive roster health entering bowl preparation.
- Memphis has been relatively quiet regarding bowl opt-outs.
Final Score Prediction
NC State 31, Memphis 24
ATS and Total Picks
- Against the Spread: NC State -5.5
- Total: Under 58
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