Memphis vs South Florida Picks and Prediction for Thursday November 12 2026

Memphis heads to Tampa on Thursday night for an 8 PM ET game against South Florida at Raymond James Stadium. ESPN has the coverage. The Tigers are favored by 6.5 points, and the total is 48.5. Memphis has the better offense by a pretty wide margin, but South Florida has been difficult to score against. That’s what makes this interesting. Memphis can move the ball against just about anybody. The question is whether the Tigers can turn all those yards into enough points to cover on the road. College football is getting ready for bowl season and the end of the season, but you can still make sure you are ready for everything with our free college football picks.

Memphis Has Been Putting Up Some Serious Offensive Numbers

Memphis is 7-2 overall and 2-2 on the road after beating Army 49-22 in its last game. The Tigers have won two straight since losing 31-17 to Tulane. They also beat East Carolina 41-34, although that was a much closer game than Memphis probably wanted. This offense has been carrying the team, and it has been doing a pretty good job.

Memphis is averaging 37.6 points and more than 510 yards per game. That’s an excellent offensive combination. The Tigers are throwing for about 291 yards and rushing for another 223. They’re also averaging more than seven yards per play. The defense has been allowing 23.6 points and around 377 yards, which is respectable but not overwhelming. Memphis has given up almost 188 rushing yards per game, and that could be a problem if South Florida can control the ball.

Marcus Stokes has thrown for 2,532 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. Jaylin Carter has rushed for 929 yards and ten scores, giving Memphis a legitimate ground threat. Hunter Tipton has 35 catches for 495 yards and five touchdowns. Those numbers explain why the Tigers have been so difficult to defend. South Florida can’t just concentrate on stopping the run or protecting against the pass. Memphis can hurt a defense either way.

South Florida Needs Its Defense to Carry the Load

South Florida is 6-3 overall and 4-1 at home after losing 20-17 to East Carolina on November 7. The Bulls have been inconsistent offensively, but they’ve been pretty dependable defensively. They beat UAB 30-10 before the East Carolina loss and also held Kent State to two points. That’s the kind of defensive effort they’ll need against Memphis.

The Bulls are averaging 25.9 points per game and allowing only 15.1. That’s a big defensive advantage over Memphis. South Florida is allowing about 307 yards per game, including only 128 on the ground. The problem is the offense. The Bulls have been generating considerably fewer yards than Memphis, and they haven’t been particularly explosive through the air. If they fall behind by two touchdowns, I’m not sure they have the passing game to catch up quickly.

Michael Van Buren Jr. has thrown for 1,273 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. D.J. Crowther has rushed for 689 yards and seven scores, while Bryson Rodgers has 38 catches for 395 yards and three touchdowns. South Florida needs Crowther to have a good night because running the football is its best chance to keep Memphis’ offense on the sideline. The Bulls also need to protect the ball. Giving Memphis extra possessions would be a mistake.

Memphis vs South Florida Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: South Florida +6.5 (-115)

I’m taking South Florida and the points. Memphis has the better offense, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers win. But South Florida is allowing only 15.1 points per game and has been tough at home. Memphis has been giving up almost 188 rushing yards per game, so the Bulls should have opportunities to keep drives going. The concern is South Florida’s limited passing game. If Memphis jumps ahead early, this could get away from the Bulls. But I think South Florida’s defense keeps the game close enough to cover.

Total Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)

Give me the under 48.5. Memphis has been scoring almost 38 points a game, so I understand why somebody would want the over. But South Florida has been allowing only about 15, and the Bulls have been comfortable playing lower-scoring games. I think they’ll try to run the ball, shorten possessions, and keep Memphis from getting into a rhythm. The danger is the Tigers hitting a couple of explosive plays and forcing South Florida to open things up. Still, I see something around 27-20, which gives us a Bulls cover and keeps the total under.

Final Picks: South Florida +6.5 (-115) | Under 48.5 (-110)