Mercyhurst vs New Mexico State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 5 2026

Mercyhurst continues a difficult opening stretch when it travels to Las Cruces to face New Mexico State on Saturday, September 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET at Aggie Memorial Stadium, with ESPN+ carrying the game. Both teams enter at 0-1. Mercyhurst opened its season with a 43-10 road loss to Youngstown State, while New Mexico State opened with a 34-17 road loss against Florida State. With the Aggies dropping considerably in competition and returning home, New Mexico State has an excellent opportunity to earn its first victory of the season. Get into the action with our free college football picks.

Mercyhurst Faces Another Difficult Road Test

Mercyhurst's schedule isn't providing much time to settle into the season. After beginning on the road against Youngstown State, the Lakers now travel more than halfway across the country for their first FBS matchup of 2026.

The opener demonstrated the challenge Mercyhurst could face here. The Lakers were beaten 43-10 while surrendering 484 total yards. They did manage to produce two red-zone scores, so there were at least some encouraging offensive moments despite the lopsided final score.

The concern is whether Mercyhurst can prevent another game from getting away from it. New Mexico State doesn't possess the same profile as many of the Power Four favorites we've been handicapping, but the Aggies still represent a significant step up in depth from Mercyhurst.

Getting enough points is therefore essential. I wouldn't be interested in backing Mercyhurst at a modest number, but once the spread reaches approximately four touchdowns, the Lakers become more attractive.

New Mexico State Drops Significantly in Competition

New Mexico State's 0-1 record needs context. The Aggies opened their season in Tallahassee against Florida State and lost 34-17. That's a completely different assignment from returning to Las Cruces and facing an FCS opponent that just surrendered 43 points to Youngstown State.

New Mexico State showed enough offensively to score 17 points against Florida State. Now the Aggies face a Mercyhurst defense that allowed 484 yards in its opener. The location also changes. New Mexico State gets its home opener at Aggie Memorial Stadium after beginning the year on the road.

This is exactly the type of matchup in which the Aggies should be able to establish control early and use their depth as the game progresses. However, there's still a price at which I would rather take the huge underdog.

Mercyhurst vs New Mexico State Picks and Prediction

Pick: New Mexico State -27.5 or Better

My preferred side is New Mexico State if the spread is -27.5 or lower. The Aggies' 34-17 loss shouldn't be judged too harshly considering it came on the road against Florida State. Mercyhurst, meanwhile, lost 43-10 to Youngstown State and allowed 484 yards. New Mexico State now comes home and drops substantially in competition. I could see the Aggies winning something around 38-10, which would give us a cover at -27.5. Once the number reaches -30.5 or higher, however, I'd become much less interested. Take New Mexico State -27.5 or better.

Pick: Under 55.5

For the total, Under 55.5 would be my target. New Mexico State should have opportunities to score, but Mercyhurst's ability to contribute enough points is the bigger question. The Lakers scored only 10 in their opener, and New Mexico State held a much stronger Florida State opponent to 34. If the Aggies get ahead comfortably, the second half could become much more about controlling the game than continuing to push the pace. A score such as 38-10 or 35-13 keeps us beneath this target. Take Under 55.5 if that number is available.

Final Picks: New Mexico State -27.5 or better and Under 55.5