Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction Pick and Prediction Dec 31, 2025
The No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (11-2) face off against the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) at AT&T Stadium in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, a high-stakes quarterfinal matchup in the 2025 College Football Playoff. This game features a fascinating coaching shift, as Ryan Day will take back offensive play-calling duties for the Buckeyes following the departure of Brian Hartline to South Florida. Miami enters as a battle-tested underdog, fresh off a gritty 10-3 first-round defensive masterpiece against Texas A&M at Kyle Field.
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Ohio State Buckeyes: A Champion's Redemption
The defending national champions arrive in Arlington looking to bounce back from a narrow 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes' offense, led by freshman standout and Heisman finalist Julian Sayin (3,323 yards, 31 TDs), will be the focus as Day returns to the headset. Sayin will have his full complement of weapons, as star receivers Jeremiah Smith (1,086 yards) and Carnell Tate are reportedly 100% healthy.
However, the offensive line faces a critical test. Starting right guard Tegra Tshabola is listed as doubtful, likely leaving redshirt freshman Gabe VanSickle to protect Sayin against a Miami pass rush that ranks among the best in the country. Defensively, Ohio State remains the gold standard, leading the nation in scoring defense by allowing a staggering 8.2 points per game.
Miami Hurricanes: The "U" is Playoff-Ready
Mario Cristobal has the Hurricanes in the CFP quarterfinals for the first time, fueled by a relentless defense and the veteran poise of Carson Beck. Beck (3,175 yards, 26 TDs) has been elite over his last five games, completing 78% of his passes while minimizing the turnovers that plagued him earlier in the season. His connection with freshman Malachi Toney (992 yards) will be vital against Ohio State's lockdown secondary.
The Hurricanes' calling card is a "Havoc-minded" defense that ranks 4th nationally in points allowed (13.2 PPG). Edge rusher Akheem Mesidor (8.5 sacks) will be tasked with exploiting the Buckeyes' backup right guard to disrupt Julian Sayin’s timing. Miami has been an underdog twice this season and won both games outright (vs. Notre Dame and Texas A&M), proving they thrive in the "spoiler" role.
Expert Picks and Predictions
Miami vs Ohio State ATS Pick
Miami Hurricanes +9.5
I am taking the points with the Hurricanes. While Ohio State is the more talented team on paper, Miami’s defense is playing at an elite level, allowing just 9.4 points per game over their last five contests. Every time Ohio State has faced a top-tier defense this year (Texas, Indiana), the game has been decided by one score. I expect Ryan Day’s play-calling to give the Buckeyes a boost, but Miami is too disciplined and physical to be blown out on this stage.
Miami vs Ohio State Total Pick
Under 41.5
This is a matchup between the #1 and #4 scoring defenses in the country. Both teams prefer to control the clock and win in the trenches. Ohio State’s defense hasn't allowed more than 14 points to a non-Indiana opponent in months, and Miami just held a top-15 Texas A&M offense to a single field goal. In a playoff environment with everything on the line, expect a conservative, field-position-heavy battle. A 20-17 or 23-14 type of game feels much more likely than a shootout.
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