Miami Hurricanes vs. SMU Mustangs, Preview, Odds, Prediction and Picks – Saturday, November 1
The SMU Mustangs will host the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Miami vs. SMU prediction. Miami is coming off a 42-7 rout of Stanford at home, while SMU just suffered a deflating 13-12 loss to Wake Forest to break a three-game win streak. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 1.
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Miami thrashes Stanford 42-7 in Week 9
The 6-1 Miami Hurricanes enter Week 10 at No. 10 in the AP Top 25, dropping a spot after No. 10 Vanderbilt beat No. 15 Missouri 17-10 in Week 9. The lone blemish on the Hurricanes' record is their 24-21 loss to Louisville two weeks ago, but they rebounded nicely last week with a 42-7 demolition of Stanford.
Miami gained 404 yards on offense while allowing only 144 yards to Stanford on defense, converted 25 first downs while only allowing eight, and took the ball away twice without committing a turnover themselves. The Hurricanes started slowly, missing a field goal on their first possession before allowing the Cardinal to drive 74 yards for their lone touchdown of the game, and the score at halftime was even at 7-7. The second half went differently–all but one of the Hurricanes' second-half drives ended in a touchdown, while only one of the Cardinal's second-half drives traveled over ten yards.
Carson Beck completed 21 of 28 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown, posting his highest completion percentage (75.0) since the Hurricanes began conference play. It's the first game Beck has completed this season against an FBS opponent without throwing an interception or taking a sack. Mark Fletcher Jr. carried the ball 23 times for 106 yards and three touchdowns, marking his first career three-touchdown game and his first multiple-score game against an ACC opponent this season. Defensively, the Hurricanes secured six pass defenses alongside the two interceptions, holding Cardinal quarterback Ben Gulbranson to only nine completions and 50 yards on 21 pass attempts.
Overall, the Hurricanes' offense ranks 38th among 136 FBS teams in passing yards (256.7), 69th in rushing yards (154.4), and 37th in points (34.0) per game. They've been exceptional at limiting scoring on defense, allowing the eighth-fewest points per game (14.1) of any FBS team.
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Mustangs' offense struggles in loss to Deacons
The SMU Mustangs are 5-3 overall and 3-1 against ACC opponents heading into Week 10, landing them at fifth in the 17-team ACC standings. They'd won three straight against Syracuse (31-18), Stanford (34-10), and Clemson (35-24) heading into Week 9, but went down a peg after an annoyingly close 13-12 loss to Wake Forest.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +450.00 |
| 2 |  Sean Higgs | +327.00 |
| 3 |  David Delano | +182.00 |
| 4 |  Stephen Nover | +100.00 |
| 5 |  Terry Edelmann | +100.00 |
The game was every bit as close as it looked on the scoreboard. Wake Forest kicked their game-winning field goal from 50 yards away, on their last possession, after completing a 25-yard pass and spiking the ball with 12 seconds left to play. Up to that point in the fourth quarter, the Demon Deacons had ended multiple long drives without points–two of their three drives went for 60 yards in eight plays before ending in fumbles. The Mustangs' offense wasn't nearly as productive, gaining a total of 23 yards and punting three times without moving the sticks for a first down. The teams ended the game with only 547 total yards combined and eight combined turnovers, but the Demon Deacons converted 17 first downs while the Mustangs only converted eight. This game wasn't played in a rainstorm or gale-force winds–the offense was just organically ugly and unproductive.
Kevin Jennings completed 21 of 39 passes for 171 yards in the game, dropping below 200 yards for the first time this season despite posting his second-highest number of pass attempts. It also marked his first game this season without a passing touchdown after he'd logged four straight games with two or more. The Mustangs still rank 33rd among FBS teams in passing yards per game (266.0) and T-50th in points (31.4), but the scoreboard will look much worse if they play as poorly against Miami as they did against Wake Forest.
Miami vs. SMU Pick
Spread Pick for Miami vs. SMU
- Miami -12.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Hurricanes are 5-2 against the spread this season, only failing to cover as 53.5 favorites against Bethune-Cookman (45-3) and in their upset loss to Louisville. They haven't struggled to cover otherwise–they covered a 30-point spread last week in their 42-7 rout of Stanford. The Mustangs are 2-5 against the spread and coming off their most baffling game of the season, scoring only 12 points against Wake Forest.
Over/Under Pick for Miami vs. SMU
- Under 51.5 (-115) (4 Units)
The Mustangs will have their work cut out for them, trying to bounce back from a poor offensive game against the eighth-best scoring defense in the FBS. They've scored 30 or more points in each of their home games this season, but they'd also scored 24 or more points in all of their games until that trend came to a screeching halt last week. The Team Total Under is 6-2 in SMU games and 4-3 in Miami games, and all four of the Hurricanes' last four games have ended with 50 or fewer points scored. I'd take that trend to advance another week.
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