Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers Picks and Predictions, Saturday October 18, 2025
Use Code SSWC The College Football season is well and truly heating up, and this week we'll see plenty of blockbuster showdowns, with perhaps none bigger than our Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers prediction.
The Michigan State Spartans (3-3, 0-3 B10) 2025 season has been a tale of runs thus far, as they followed up three wins with three straight losses. They face a must-win game here if they want to put together a respectable campaign.
On Saturday, they battle the No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers (6-0, 3-0 B10), a team that has dominated all season long, and with several marquee victories throughout that campaign, they're well and truly in the running for a shot at the national title. Read on to see our Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers prediction.
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Can Michigan State halt their losing skid?
Early in the season, the Michigan State Spartans were rolling, picking up three straight wins at home, but since then, they've gone 0-3 overall against conference foes. They've dropped their only two games played on the road, being outscored by a combined 25 points in that time. The biggest problem for the Spartans this season has been their defensive struggles, with the team giving up 32 points a game this season (41.5 on the road), and while the offense ranks top-100 in the country in QB rating, pass yards and total yards per play, it simply hasn't stopped them from stumbling as of late.
Behind junior quarterback Aidan Chiles, the passing game has clearly not been the problem, as he has over 1,100 passing yards and a 9/3 TD/INT ratio, and with the running game putting up 12 scores of their own this season, this is a well-rounded unit. Last time out for Michigan State was a tough loss to UCLA, with the offense managing just 253 total yards as they were beaten soundly from the first quarter, losing 38-13 at home with the Bruins scoring double-digit points in each of the first three quarters. Chiles was injured in the third quarter against the Bruins and is considered questionable. If he can't go, redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic, who threw a fourth-quarter touchdown against UCLA, will get the nod
Can Indiana land another statement victory?
The No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers came into the 2025 season under the radar, but to this point in the year, they've been absolutely dominant, with the team sitting at a perfect 4-0 at home with two massive ranked wins thus far in 2025. Defensively, these Hoosiers have been near perfect this season, ranking top-five in the nation in opponents' QB rating, yards allowed, sacks and scoring, and with such good balance, this is a team that believes they can win the National Title this season.
While the defense has dominated, junior quarterback Fernando Mendoza (71.2%) has been lighting it up as well, tossing 17 touchdowns thus far in 2025, and with the team rushing for another 13 touchdowns, there are arguments to be made that this is the best team in college football. The defense has allowed just 11.3 points per game.
Last time out for Indiana, they secured a big win over the then No. 3-ranked Oregon Ducks, and while they only had 326 yards of total offense, the defense held their opponents under 300 while forcing two turnovers, leading to the very hard-fought 30-20 victory on the road. Their defense also stepped up in that game, holding the Ducks to just 267 total yards, while picking off quarterback Dante Moore twice and sacking him six times.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers picks
Moneyline pick for Michigan State vs. Indiana
- Indiana -27.5 (5 units)
While the Michigan State Spartans are never a team that can be taken lightly, the Indiana Hoosiers have been absolutely dominant this season with a very balanced team that can run or pass, going 4-0 at home while outscoring their opponents by 188 points in that time.
On top of that, the Hoosiers came away winners 47-10 in the corresponding matchup between these teams a season ago, and with one of college football's best defenses and a balanced offense, expect them to win in similarly dominant fashion in this one. Even if Chiles plays, this is going to be a blowout for the Hoosiers.
Over/under pick for Michigan State vs. Indiana
- Over 52.5 (5 units)
This matchup may be focused on the dominant Indiana defense, but this season, both of these offenses have been fantastic, with the over now sitting at 6-4 in their last 10 head-to-head matchups following a battle in which 57 points were scored between them in 2024.
For the Spartans, the over sits at 4-2 this season, with 83 points allowed across two road games in 2025, and for the Hoosiers, the over comes in at 4-2 in that same span, with the team averaging a ridiculous 45 points a game thus far in 2025.
Keep it simple, take the over.
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