Michigan State Spartans vs. Southern California (USC) Trojans Picks and Prediction - Saturday, September 20, 2025
We go out west for Big Ten action and we’re bringing you our Michigan State vs. USC predictions to get you ready. The Spartans (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS) took down Youngstown State last weekend, 41-24, as -24 favorites at home. The 25th-ranked Trojans (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) went to Purdue and walked away with a 33-17 victory as -20.5 favorites last week. Kickoff from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. EST and for more, be sure to grab all of our top College Football Picks for the week.
Michigan State has offense firing on all cylinders
Following a tight, double overtime win against Boston College, the Spartans handled business as expected against Youngstown State. They scored on seven of ten possessions and had a total of 444 yards in the win. Led by a balanced attack, the team had 23 first downs and went 6-for-10 on third downs. Defensively, Michigan State allowed 339 total yards and 14 first downs.
The Spartans on offense are averaging 35.3 points and 386.7 total yards per game. They’ve leaned a bit more on the run, 112 plays to 82 passing plays, and three players have already rushed for over 100 yards. Makhi Frazier leads the club with 206 yards on two TDs on 43 carries. Aidan Chiles has picked up 123 yards on the ground while also averaging 218.7 passing yards per game. The junior QB completed 71.6% of his passes for 656 yards, six TDs and an interception. He has found 10 different receivers, two of whom have at least 15 catches. Michigan State’s offensive line has had some issues, allowing eight sacks thus far.
On defense, the Spartans are giving up 23.3 points and 337.7 total yards. They have the ninth-best rushing defense in the nation, allowing just 64.3 yards per game on the ground and two touchdowns total. The 273.3 passing yards per game allowed are the worst mark among Big Ten defenses. They’ve managed to record six sacks but have just two interceptions. Jordan Hall has been the leader on the defensive end, with a team-high 27 tackles and two sacks.
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Team notes
- Chiles had a career-high 76 rushing yards in the win over Youngstown.
- The Spartans scored 40 points or more in back-to-back games for the first time since 2017.
- Ryan Eckley is averaging 52 yards per punt, putting seven inside the 20 and kicking six of them for 50-plus yards.
- Martin Connington is 4-for-4 on field goal attempts and 6-for-6 on PATs.
USC brings top offense to table
The Trojans have remained undefeated with a pair of blowout wins, followed by a respectable road victory against a power conference school last weekend. They scored in all four quarters versus Purdue as their offense racked up 460 total yards, picking up 22 first downs along the way. The defense allowed 357 total yards and 23 first downs, but limited their opponent to just 52 rushing yards.
The USC offense leads the country in scoring with a 66-point per game average. They also top the nation in total offense with 604 yards per game. The passing game is averaging 364 yards per game with Jayden Maiava leading the charge. The junior quarterback has connected on 68.6% of his passes for 989 yards and 6 TDs, with no interceptions. The Trojans boast a strong rushing attack as well, averaging 240 yards per game. Three players have gained over 150 yards and five have found the end zone at least twice, including Maiava. Waymond Jordan is 23rd in the country with 286 rushing yards. The line has allowed only three sacks to date.
The Southern California defense is giving up 16.7 points and 319.3 total yards per game. They’ve been stronger against the run, giving up just 86.3 runs per game, seventh best in the Big Ten. They’ve still found ways to torture the opponent's passing game, recording 14 sacks, most in the country, and six interceptions, tied for second overall. Eric Gentry has been all over, recording team-highs with 21 tackles and three sacks for 15 yards of loss. Bishop Fitzgerald has picked off half of the team’s interceptions to go with 15 tackles.
Game notes
- The team has seen 13 different Trojans score a touchdown.
- The offense has scored in double digits in 10 of their 12 quarters this season.
- Maiava tops the nation with a 20.6 passing yards per completion average.
- Makai Lemon is 10th in the country with 311 receiving yards and 20th in all-purpose yards with 131 per game.
Michigan State vs. USC Picks
Spread Pick for Michigan State vs. USC
- Michigan State +18.5 (5 units)
These two teams have evenly split their eight past meetings. They last met in the 1990 Sun Bowl, a game the Spartans won by a point. Michigan State is going to have its hands mighty full with this USC offense. They have done well against the running game and could fare well in that department here, but they lack the pressure up front, which should allow Maiava plenty of time in the pocket to work with. The Spartans do have a better defense than USC faced last weekend, so I don’t expect the Trojans to go off so much here, though they’ll get their points in the end. Chiles is the x-factor in this game. After shunning USC in the transfer portal, the Spartans’ QB is looking to come in and prove himself a bit. He’s a seasoned signal caller and not one who rolls over, so I fully expect him to keep the Michigan State offense rolling and keep it close.
Take the Spartans getting the points.
Over/Under for Michigan State vs. USC
- Over 56.5 (4 units)
These two offenses have been flowing this season. Michigan State has done well in both aspects of their offense, and noted above, they have a veteran under center who is determined to move the ball. They have a ton of weapons that make things happen as well. The Spartans scored at least 41 points in each of their last two games. USC is as good as it gets in terms of offense over the first three weeks of the season. No team has been able to stop their pass or run games and like Michigan State, they have a big-time leader under center. They’ve scored at least 33 points per game and twice scored 59 or more. Between the two teams, the over is a combined 4-2.
Take the over.
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