Michigan State vs. Iowa, Prediction, Odds, Preview and Pick, Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025
Use Code SSWC Big 10 college football is on tap in this Michigan State vs. Iowa prediction. The Spartans (3-7, 0-7 B10) are playing for pride, while Iowa (6-4, 4-3), is going bowling, but would like to finish strong in the conference as they are tied with four other teams for sixth place in the Big 10. We're looking at mild weather in Iowa City, highs in the low 50s, and sunny at kickoff. These teams met last season with Sparty upsetting the Hawkeyes 32-20 as a 6.5-point dog. This time, MSU is a 16.5-point underdog on the road during this 3:30pmET kickoff from Iowa City. Check out more predictions in college football and the NFL this weekend on Stat Salt.
Another Tough year at East Lansing
Michigan State is 0-7 in the Big 10 and has gone 8-26 in their last four years with Mel Tucker and now Jonathan Smith as head coach. It starts at quarterback as Sparty has lost seven straight games, covering five, so the defense has been competitive. In their last game against Penn State, they fell at home 28-10 as a 7-point underdog. They scored 10 points in the second half and then were held scoreless in the second half. QB Alessio Milivojevic completed 17 of 27 for just 128 yards. RB Elijah Tau-Tolliver ran for 79 yards on just six attempts, including a 57-yard run for a TD in the first quarter.
The Spartans are just not very explosive offensively. Aidan Chiles was the starting QB originally (1,392yds, 10 TD and 3 INTs) and they moved to Milivojevic, a 6-2 freshman, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 720 yards with four TDs and a pick. They could go back to Chiles as Milivojevic is questionable this week. Makhi Frzier leads the ground attack with 520 yards rushing (4.5ypc) and two TDs. Nick Marsh leads all receivers with 48 catches for 559 yards with five TDs.
The defense has been solid considering that they've been on the field a ton, but they rank 128th in the nation in takeaways. They also allow 154 rushing yards per game and rank 101st in turnover margin.
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Key Injury Report for Michigan State
- QB A. Chiles (foot) is questionable. Missed the last game with a foot injury.
- QB A. Milivojevic (undisclosed) is questionable.
- CB Nikai Martinez (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 24 tackles.
Iowa falls in last two games
Iowa is still in a pretty good position, but they need to win out to get to eight wins and a solid bowl game. They fell to Oregon (18-16) and at USC (26-21) in their last two games after beating Minnesota on Oct. 25 before their bye week. But the offense always seems to trail the defense, especially in bigger games. When you look at their wins (FCS Albany, UMass, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Minnesota), the Golden Gophers' victory (41-3) was the most impressive of the six. In their loss to No. 17 USC last week on the road, the Hawkeyes were up 21-10 at the half and went scoreless in the second half.
QB Mark Gronowski had a TD run, caught a TD pass, and threw a TD pass against the Trojans, but the Hawkeyes failed once again against a ranked team (they had the lead against Oregon in the final minute). Iowa has been defeated by four ranked teams this season by a combined 15 points. Gronowski has thrown for 1,216 yards with six TDs and five INTs, while rushing for 370 yards and 13 TDs. RB Kamari Moulton adds 612 yards to lead Iowa and two TDs (5.1ypc).
Defensively, Iowa had a strong defensive line led by Max Llewellyn (6 sacks, 2 FF) and Aaron Graves (5 sacks, 1 INT). Iowa's defense is fantastic as usual, allowing just 261.2 yards per game (6th) and 157.4 passing yards per contest (6th).
Key Injury Report for Iowa:
no key injuries listed
Spread Pick for Michigan State vs. Iowa
Michigan State vs Iowa Pick and Prediction
- Iowa -16.5 (4 units)
Iowa has covered most of their games against lesser competition, and when you look at their last eight games, they've covered seven of those games and the Penn State contest (25-24), they just missed covering by two points. It's tough to see how Michigan State is going to compete with their quarterback situation, as Chiles is a better quarterback, who was benched due to his performance, but was supposed to play against USC and was injured. Either way, one of those quarterbacks is facing an elite defense, especially against the pass. Iowa will wear them down and dominate the game.
- Over 42.5 (4 units)
Iowa is as much of an under team as they've been in the past and in these matchups, they've gone over in three straight against Michigan State. Against lesser competition, they put up 41 points against Minnesota, 37 against Wisconsin and 38 against Rutgers. Michigan State did score 20 points against rival Michigan, another strong defense, alowing 31. They might not score that much here, but will score enough to go over.
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