Michigan State vs. Nebraska Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Use Code SSWC We have an electric Big Ten tilt scheduled for Saturday afternoon, as a couple of 3-1 programs get together with the Michigan State Spartans (3-1, 0-1 B1G) taking on the Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1, 0-1 B1G). We’ve got you covered with our Michigan State vs. Nebraska prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 ET from Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, NE. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Spartans Suffer First Defeat in 2025
This is the second season of the Jonathan Smith reign in East Lansing, and this year’s Michigan State Spartans squad is showing some promise. They had a couple of tune-up victories over Western Michigan (23-6) and Youngstown State (41-24), but also had a power-four non-conference win over Boston College (42-40) back in Week 2. The Spartans are coming off of a 45-31 barnburning loss to #25 USC on September 20th, and they’ll enter this weekend’s game coming off of a bye.
It’s junior quarterback Aidan Chiles under center for the Spartans this season, and he has looked sharp through the first four games. He has 868 yards on a 68.6% completion rate, adding nine touchdowns and one interception. Chiles’ top target is Omari Kelly, who has 317 yards and a touchdown on 21 receptions. RB Makhi Frazier has spearheaded the rushing attack, adding 267 yards and two touchdowns on 57 totes (4.7 YPC).
- Sparty has an updated win total of 5.5 (-130/+100), and they’re sitting at +30000 to win the conference title.
- Michigan State’s offense has been excellent this season, ranking 39th in scoring (32.0 PPG), while putting up 351.0 yards per game (88th).
- On the defensive side, the Spartans are 93rd this season, allowing 30.3 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 78th, conceding 399.0 yards per contest.
Cornhuskers Lose at Home to Wolverines
The expectations are high for Coach Matt Rhule and his Nebraska Cornhuskers this season, as Rhule typically sees his teams make the big leap in year three. So far, Nebraska is 3-1 out of the gate, notching season-opening wins over Cincinnati (20-17), Akron (68-0), and Houston Christian (59-7). They suffered a home loss to #21 Michigan (30-27), most recently, and are also coming off of a bye. It’s a relatively light stretch to close out the year, with the only ranked opponent left being #7 Penn State on November 22nd.
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Sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola has looked very good this season, throwing for 1,137 yards on a 75.6% completion rate. He has an excellent 11/1 TD/INT ratio. Raiola is distributing the ball evenly across a solid receiving group, but WR Jacory Barney Jr. leads the way with 301 yards and three touchdowns on 21 receptions. RB Emmett Johnson has handled a bulk of the rushing work, registering 391 yards and four touchdowns on 71 carries (5.5 YPC).
- Nebraska is now projected for 7.5 wins (-180/+135), and they’re coming in at +18000 to win the Big Ten championship.
- Offensively, the Cornhuskers are scoring 38.3 points per game (13th), while averaging 477.3 yards per week (16th).
- Defensively, they are 14th in the country this year, conceding 15.7 points per game. They’re allowing 280.3 yards per contest, which is 13th.
Michigan State vs. Nebraska Pick
Spread Pick for Michigan State vs. Nebraska
- Michigan State Spartans +11.5 (-110) (5 units)
I haven’t seen enough out of Nebraska to be laying double digits with them this season. They have a couple of tune-up victories and a slim three-point win over Cincinnati (W: 20-17), who we’re finding out is pretty mediocre. The Cornhuskers failed their biggest test against Michigan (L: 30-27), which was a perfect setup considering the Wolverines didn’t have their head coach, were at home, and were playing a true freshman quarterback.
Meanwhile, I think it may be time to invest in Sparty. I’m not saying they’re winning it all this year, but they have a juggernaut offense and an experienced quarterback in Aidan Chiles who takes care of the ball (9/1 TD/INT ratio). Michigan State has scored 31+ points in three straight games, and while this will be a tall task on the road, I expect to see the Spartans manage enough offense to stay inside the number.
Over/Under Pick for Michigan State vs. Nebraska
- Over 49.5 (-105) (5 units)
Alright, so the big issue with Michigan State is its defense. They’ve been gashed this season, allowing 30.3 points per game. That number is a tad skewed due to an overtime win against Boston College (W: 42-40), but they still allowed 27 points in that game during regulation. USC moved the ball with ease against Michigan State, racking up 45 points in the win. Sparty has now seen eight of its last 10 games go over the total.
And, as I was alluding to above, I do think we’ll see Michigan State’s offense keep pace on Saturday. I’m just not sold on Nebraska. They allowed 30 points to Michigan and a freshman quarterback who has a sub-60% completion rate this season. They’re decent against the run, but with a dual-threat quarterback like Chiles on the docket, it throws another variable into the mix. The over is now 4-1 in Nebraska’s last five home games. I’m taking the over, and I think this one lands in the 31-24 range in favor of Nebraska.
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