Michigan vs. Oklahoma Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
The college football season is in full swing, and we have a ranked battle on Saturday evening between the #15 Michigan Wolverines (1-0) and the #18 Oklahoma Sooners (1-0). We’ve got you covered with our Michigan vs. Oklahoma prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 ET from Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK.
#15 Wolverines Handle Lobos 34-17
The Michigan Wolverines entered the year on the heels of some bad news, as the program was docked around $20 million in penalties and received a 25% reduction in official visits for 2025-26, which all stem from the sign-stealing scandal from the national championship year. Still, Coach Sherrone Moore, who’s in his second season at the helm, is looking to put that behind him and build on their 8-5 (5-4 B1G) mark from a year ago. Michigan opened up the season with a relatively easy win over New Mexico (34-17).
Freshman Bryce Underwood will lead Michigan under center this season, and he threw for 251 yards and a touchdown in the opening victory. His top targets will be WRs Donaven McCulley (31 yards) and Marlin Klein (93 yards, 1 TD). Look for Michigan to lean on its rushing attack once again this season. RB Justice Haynes racked up 159 yards and three touchdowns in the opener against New Mexico.
- Michigan’s win total currently sits at 8.5 (-170/+140), and the program is priced at +900 to win the conference title.
- Touching on last year’s metrics, the Wolverines were 103rd in points per game (22.0) and 128th in yards per week (286.2).
- They were 17th in defensive scoring (19.9 PAPG) and ninth in yards conceded per game (307.0).
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#18 Sooners Cruise Past Redbirds
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma Sooners opted to bring back Coach Brent Venables for his fourth season as the head coach. He has logged a 23-17 (12-14 CONF) mark so far, while going 0-3 in bowl games. Oklahoma went 6-7 (2-6 SEC) in its debut campaign in the SEC. The Sooners got the new season started with an easy win, cruising past visiting Illinois State is a 35-3 affair. They out-gained the Redbirds 495-151 and went 4-10 on third-down conversions. However, the Sooners lost the turnover battle (2-0).
Junior QB John Mateer, a Washington State transfer, will lead Oklahoma in 2025. He went nuclear in the season opener, tossing three touchdowns and an interception while racking up 392 yards. Tory Blaylock (44 yards, 1 TD) led the way on the ground, but it should be noted that Jovantae Barnes (8 yards) is listed as a top running back. Out wide, Mateer will be delivering the ball to WRs Keontez Lewis (119 yards, 2 TD) and Deion Burks (88 yards, 1 TD).
- Oklahoma has an adjusted win total of 7.5 (+110/-130) and they’re priced at +2200 to win the conference title.
- The Sooners finished last season ranked 110th in scoring (21.1 PPG), while coming in at 126th in yards per game (303.2).
- Defensively, they were 27th in points given up per game (22.2) and 19th in yards conceded per contest (323.9).
Michigan vs. Oklahoma Pick
Spread Pick for Michigan vs. Oklahoma
- Oklahoma Sooners -3.5 (-110) (5 units)
As of this writing (Thursday afternoon), this spread is all over the place. I only saw one sportsbook that had Oklahoma -3.5 (-110), and I promptly locked in that bet since it’s a very favorable number. If you are able to find a Sooners -3.5 line, then I’d suggest riding with that.
Anything larger than 3.5 and I’d start to play it a bit more cautiously and maybe lower your bet size here. Now, on that note, it is worth mentioning that Michigan went 8-5 SU last season, and all five of their losses came by 5+ points. So when losing, they didn’t manage to keep those games close.
With all of that being said, I’m just not there on backing freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood in a hostile road environment against an Oklahoma team that looks like it has a true air raid offense under QB John Mateer. To recap, I love the Sooners at -3.5, but if you’re unable to find that favorable of a spread, I’d still recommend OU, but just at a smaller unit size.
- Under 45.5 (-115) (5 units)
Michigan still boasts a top-tier defense. That hasn’t changed with the departures of Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter. They’re coming off of a campaign where they were 17th overall, conceding only 19.9 points per game. PFF has their defensive line ranked sixth overall in the country.
In those same rankings, Oklahoma’s defensive line is ninth. The Sooners are coming off of a 2024-25 season where they allowed only 22.2 points per game (27th). They also looked excellent in their tune-up game against Illinois State, holding them to only 151 total yards. With a freshman quarterback at the wheel for Michigan, I can see him struggling and hindering this game from going over the number. Give me the under.
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