Mississippi State Bulldogs versus Texas A&M Aggies Picks and Predictions - Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Mississippi State versus Texas A&M Picks and Predictions - Saturday, October 4th
Mississippi State is traveling to Kyle Field in College Station, Texas for their week six matchup against Texas A&M; keep reading for our Mississippi State versus Texas A&M prediction. Mississippi State is 12th in the SEC with a conference record of 0-1 and a season record of 4-1. Texas A&M is fifth in the SEC with a conference record of 1-0 and a season record of 4-0. Texas A&M won their last meeting against the Bulldogs with a final score of 34-24 last season. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. EDT. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Mississippi State Looks To Win With Run Game
The Bulldogs are coming off a tough overtime loss last week against Tennessee with a final score of 41-34. This is the first loss of the season for Mississippi State as they would break up a four-game win streak they had amassed. They were able to run the ball for 198 yards, but allowed 335 passing yards. The Bulldogs will be looking to grab their first conference win of the season.
The offense for the Bulldogs this season has been the key to their victory as they rank 15th in the country in points and 26th in total yards. Many of those yards come from their run game which ranks 22nd in total rushing yards this season and 50th in yards per carry at 4.8. Leading this rushing offense is Sophomore running back Fluff Bothwell, who leads the team in rushing yards with 405 in his five games played thus far. Bothwell also leads the team in yards per carry at 14 and has six touchdowns so far on the ground. QB Blake Shapen is completing 67% of his passes for 882 yards with seven TDs and wo picks.
The defense has also been impressive this season for Mississippi State, ranking 46th in points allowed. This has mostly been attested to their pass defense, which sits 47th in total passing yards allowed and 22nd in passing yards allowed per reception at 5.8. What has made the defense stand out is their ability to create turnovers as they have seven interceptions this season in their five games played across seven different players.
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Injuries:
- Gullette LB Doubtful - Undisclosed
- Steen OG Questionable - Undisclosed
- Whitson DL Out - Undisclosed
Texas A&M Remains Undefeated
The No. 6 Aggies picked up another win last week against Auburn with a final score of 16-10. This is the fourth win in a row for Texas A&M as they remain undefeated to start their season. The Aggies are 4-0 to starth the season for the first time since 2016.
Texas A&M has been one of the top teams in the SEC this season when it comes to defense. The Aggies are 56th in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. This stalwart defense has led them to grab many of their wins this season as opponents struggle to put many points against the Aggies. Texas A&M is 34th in rushing yards allowed this season and 33rd in passing yards. The Aggies are 13th in the country in sacks, which has put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and running backs attempting to drive downfield. Leading this defense is senior Defensive Lineman Cashius Howell, who leads the team in sacks at four this season in his four games played.
While the defense has looked impressive this season, the offense has equally been reliable for Texas A&M. The Aggies are also 56th in points on offense and 30th in average yards per play, averaging 6.7 yards. The pass game for Texas A&M has been the most reliable, sitting 43rd in total passing yards and 18th in passing yards per reception at 9.1. This offense has been led by Sophomore Quarterback Marcel Reed, who this season has a total of nine touchdowns in the air and is averaging 269 yards per game. Sophomore wide receiver Mario Craver leads the team in yards per game at 119.3, averaging 19.9 yards per reception in his four games played.
Injuries:
- Williams LB Out - Ankle
- Anderson S Questionable - Undisclosed
- Myles WR Out - Leg
Mississippi State versus Texas A&M Picks and Predictions
Spread Pick for Mississippi State versus Texas A&M
- Mississippi State +14.5 (-122) ( 5 units )
Mississippi State has covered this spread in four of the last five games against Texas A&M. The Bulldogs also have a record against the spread of 7-0-0 since 2024 in games against ranked opponents. Texas A&M has a record of 2-7-0 against the spread since 2024 when they are a home favorite. Texas A&M relies heavily on their pass game, which has reliably gotten it first downs this season, thanks to them averaging 9.1 yards per reception. However, they are facing off against one of the better pass defenses and will likely struggle against Mississippi State. While the Aggies have looked great on defense, it will likely not be strong enough to stop the dominating run game of Mississippi State. While I do not believe the Aggies will win, they should keep this game close and cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Mississippi State versus Texas A&M
- Over 55.5 (-110) (4 units)
Both Mississippi State and Texas A&M have an over/under record of 6-3-0 since 2024 in games against conference opponents. The Aggies also have an over/under record of 8-3-0 in games since 2024 that followed a win. Both schools have great defenses, but both also have reliable offenses that can easily grab points thanks to their ground and pass games, respectively. The Bulldogs’ defense thrives at stopping the pass, but will likely still allow points to Texas A&M, and the same can be said for the Aggies' run defense against Mississippi State’s run game. This will be a close game with each team taking advantage of the others' faults, and as a result, will be high scoring.
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