Mississippi State vs LSU Picks and Predictions for Saturday, October 17, 2026

The No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-1, 2-1 SEC) visit the No. 22 LSU Tigers (4-2, 1-2 SEC) on Saturday at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, with the opening kickoff at 12:00 PM ET on ESPN. Mississippi State sits tied for fourth in the SEC after losing 56-23 to Alabama, while LSU is tied for 11th following a 35-34 overtime loss at Kentucky. LSU is favored by 11.5 points, with the total at 58.5. Build your bankroll with our free NCAAF picks.

Mississippi State Tries to Rebound After Alabama Loss

Mississippi State had won four straight games before Alabama handed the Bulldogs their first defeat on October 3. Mississippi State beat Missouri 31-24 and South Carolina 41-34 in its previous two SEC games, demonstrating an ability to score against conference opponents. The Bulldogs also defeated Minnesota 38-13 and Louisiana-Monroe 62-13. Mississippi State has scored 195 points through five games, averaging 39 per contest, although the 23-point performance against Alabama marked its lowest offensive output this season.

Quarterback Kamario Taylor has thrown for 1,450 yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions while completing 66.2% of his passes. Anthony Evans III leads Mississippi State with 574 receiving yards and five touchdowns, while Sanfrisco Magee has added 259 yards and five scores. Fluff Bothwell leads the rushing attack with 403 yards and three touchdowns on 74 attempts. Mississippi State averages 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, with 889 rushing yards overall. Defensively, Tyler Lockhart leads the Bulldogs with 31 tackles and two sacks, while Jett Jefferson has defended seven passes.

Injuries: J. Freeman (questionable); A. Williams, T. Williams, B. Mitchell (out).

LSU Seeks Another Home Victory

LSU returns home after suffering a 35-34 overtime defeat at Kentucky. The Tigers have won three of their last five games, including a convincing 35-6 victory over Texas A&M and a 63-14 win against McNeese. LSU also defeated Louisiana Tech 45-14 but lost 32-24 at Ole Miss. The Tigers have scored 236 points through six games, averaging 39.3 points per contest. LSU has scored at least 34 points in four consecutive games, although two of those contests ended in losses.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt has completed 67.6% of his passes for 1,496 yards, 10 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Running back Dilin Jones has 482 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while Leavitt has added 259 rushing yards and seven scores. LSU has rushed for 1,282 yards and 20 touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. Winston Watkins Jr. leads the receivers with 416 yards, while Jackson Harris has 371 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Princewill Umanmielen has eight sacks, and TJ Dottery leads LSU with 40 tackles. The Tigers have recorded 23 sacks and six interceptions.

Injuries: R. Guillory Jr., T. Green (questionable); P. Wright III, D. Spears (out).

Key to the Game

The matchup centers on Mississippi State's passing attack against LSU's defensive pressure. Taylor has thrown 17 touchdown passes in five games, but LSU has recorded 23 sacks, including eight from Umanmielen. Mississippi State has allowed 13 sacks, making quarterback protection particularly important. LSU also has a productive rushing attack, with 20 touchdowns on the ground compared with Mississippi State's seven. Leavitt's eight interceptions present another important consideration against a Bulldogs defense that has recorded two interceptions.

Mississippi State vs LSU Game Pick

• Mississippi State +11.5 (-112)

Mississippi State has scored at least 31 points in four of five games, and Taylor has thrown 17 touchdowns with only four interceptions. The Bulldogs have already beaten Missouri and South Carolina in SEC play, while LSU has lost two of its three conference games. LSU's defensive pressure presents a challenge, but Mississippi State has enough production through the air to remain competitive. The Tigers have also allowed 32 points at Ole Miss and 35 at Kentucky. Take Mississippi State plus the points in Baton Rouge this Saturday.

Mississippi State vs LSU Over/Under Pick

• Over 58.5 (-115)

Mississippi State averages 39 points per game, while LSU averages 39.3 through six contests. The Bulldogs have scored at least 31 points in four games, and LSU has reached 34 points in four consecutive outings. Mississippi State's passing attack has produced 18 touchdowns, while LSU has scored 20 rushing touchdowns. Recent defensive results also favor a higher total, with Mississippi State allowing 56 points against Alabama and LSU surrendering 35 at Kentucky. Expect scoring from each offense and take the over in this matchup.