Mississippi State vs Texas Picks and Predictions for Saturday, October 31, 2026
Mississippi State has dropped three straight SEC games, and Saturday's visit to Austin won't offer much relief. The Bulldogs face No. 11 Texas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, with kickoff at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. Mississippi State is 4-3 overall, 2-3 in conference play and 11th in the SEC after losing 23-15 to Oklahoma. Texas is 5-2, sitting 10th in the conference at 2-2 following a 34-27 win over Ole Miss. The Longhorns are favored by 21 points, with the total at 51.5. Explore more Saturday matchups with our free NCAAF picks.
Mississippi State Has Hit a Rough Patch
Three weeks ago, Mississippi State had just beaten Missouri 31-24. Since then, the Bulldogs haven't won a game. Alabama scored 56 against them, LSU shut them out 31-0, and Oklahoma left Starkville with a 23-15 victory last Saturday. The defense was better against the Sooners, but Mississippi State couldn't produce enough offense to take advantage. The Bulldogs have managed only 38 points across those three defeats, a worrying stretch heading into Texas.
Kamario Taylor has thrown for 1,460 yards and 17 touchdowns, although he's questionable for Saturday. His availability matters given how badly the offense struggled against LSU and Oklahoma. Anthony Evans III has 647 receiving yards, while Fluff Bothwell leads the rushing attack with 514 yards. Bothwell is also questionable. Mississippi State needs its main playmakers available against a Texas defense featuring one of the conference's most dangerous pass rushers.
Injuries: Trevion Williams and B. Mitchell are out. Anthony Williams, J. Freeman, Fluff Bothwell and Kamario Taylor are questionable.
Texas Finally Ended Its Losing Streak
Texas needed Saturday's win over Ole Miss. The Longhorns had lost consecutive games to Oklahoma and Florida, both by 27-24 scores, before beating the Rebels 34-27. That result gives Texas something positive to build on after a frustrating October. The Longhorns have remained competitive throughout their SEC schedule, but turning close games into victories has been difficult. Now they face a Mississippi State team that's having even more trouble finishing drives.
Arch Manning has thrown for 1,507 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Ryan Wingo leads the receiving group with 456 yards, while Raleek Brown has rushed for 422 yards and five scores. Texas has been especially dangerous when its defense gets pressure. Colin Simmons has recorded 10.5 sacks, though he's questionable for this game. The Longhorns have 19 sacks overall, and Mississippi State has already allowed 21.
Injuries: Trevor Goosby is out. Colin Simmons, Hollywood Smothers, D. McCutcheon, Zion Williams and Kaliq Lockett are questionable.
Key To The Game
Mississippi State has to protect its quarterback, whoever starts Saturday. Texas can create serious problems off the edge, particularly if Simmons plays. The Bulldogs have allowed 21 sacks, and their offense has struggled badly during this losing streak. Texas also needs Manning to take better care of the football. Seven interceptions have contributed to the Longhorns' uneven season. If Mississippi State forces a couple of mistakes, keeping the game within three touchdowns becomes much more realistic.
Mississippi State vs Texas Game Pick
- Mississippi State Bulldogs +21
Texas is the better team, but laying three touchdowns is asking quite a bit from an offense that hasn't regularly dominated SEC opponents. The Longhorns beat Ole Miss by seven last Saturday after losing their previous two games by three points each. Mississippi State has been poor lately, especially offensively, but the Bulldogs kept Oklahoma within eight points. Taylor's availability is important, and Texas will create pressure regardless of who starts. I expect the Longhorns to win comfortably, just not by the margin required to cover 21 points.
Mississippi State vs Texas Over/Under Pick
- Under 51.5
Mississippi State hasn't scored more than 23 points in any of its last three games, including a shutout against LSU. Texas has also played several tight, lower-scoring contests. Its games against Tennessee, Oklahoma and Florida all finished below this number. The Longhorns scored 34 against Ole Miss, but Mississippi State's recent offensive struggles make another high-scoring finish less convincing. Texas has the pass rush to interrupt drives, while the Bulldogs need to protect the ball. I'm expecting Texas to control the game without pushing the combined score past 51.5.