Mississippi Valley State vs Sacramento State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 5 2026

Mississippi Valley State travels to California to face Sacramento State on Saturday, September 5. Sacramento State is currently favored by 35.5 points, while the total is set at 56.5. This is Sacramento State's first home game as an FBS program after making the jump from the FCS level for 2026, creating an unusual matchup between a new FBS member and an FCS opponent. Get into the action with our free college football picks.

Mississippi Valley State Gets Five Touchdowns

Mississippi Valley State faces a significant challenge, but +35.5 gives the Delta Devils more than five touchdowns of protection. That's important because Sacramento State is itself transitioning into FBS football.

The Hornets should own the better roster and have home field, but this isn't the same type of talent disparity we see when an FCS program visits a ranked Power Four team. Mississippi Valley State needs to avoid turnovers, shorten the game and produce enough offense to force Sacramento State toward the mid-40s before the Hornets can cover.

Sacramento State Begins Its FBS Home Schedule

Sacramento State is one of the most fascinating programs in college football this season after moving from the FCS level into the MAC. The market clearly believes the Hornets have enough talent to dominate Mississippi Valley State, installing Sacramento State as a 35.5-point favorite.

But laying five touchdowns plus the hook is significant for a program still adjusting to its new FBS status. A comfortable Sacramento State victory doesn't necessarily translate into a cover.

Mississippi Valley State vs Sacramento State Picks and Prediction

Pick: Mississippi Valley State +35.5

I'm taking Mississippi Valley State +35.5. Sacramento State should win comfortably, but five touchdowns plus the hook gives us substantial protection. A final around Sacramento State 38, Mississippi Valley State 10 produces a 28-point victory and still gives the underdog a touchdown of breathing room. The Hornets don't need to score into the upper 40s to accomplish everything they want from this game. Take Mississippi Valley State +35.5.

Pick: Under 56.5

I'll take Under 56.5. The biggest concern for Over bettors is how much Mississippi Valley State contributes. Sacramento State can dominate the matchup while scoring somewhere in the upper 30s or low 40s, which would still require meaningful offensive production from the Delta Devils to push the game beyond 56.5. Take Under 56.5.

Final Picks: Mississippi Valley State +35.5 and Under 56.5