Mississippi (Ole Miss) vs. Kentucky Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
We have head-to-head SEC action on the table for Saturday, so check in with our Mississippi vs. Kentucky predictions and get ready for some conference heat. The 20th-ranked Rebels (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) rolled in their season opener, 63-7, as -33.5 favorites against Georgia State at home last weekend. The Wildcats (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) were able to escape their season opener with a 24-16 win over Toledo at home as -10 favorites. Kickoff from Kroger Field is scheduled for 3:30 EST and make sure you don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Blowout win earns Ole Miss a bump in the polls
It was the way that every power school hopes their cupcake matchups go, as Ole Miss dominated Georgia State in every aspect of play from the opening whistle to the last. The offense scored at least 17 points in three of four quarters and kept their opponent off the board in the second half as they cruised to victory.
Austin Simmon went 20-31 and threw for 341 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his first start under center. The sophomore QB also picked up 17 yards on the ground and was sacked twice. The offense tallied 695 total yards in the win, recording 34 first downs while going 8-13 on third downs. Senior wideout Harrison Wallace III was Simmons’ top target, catching five passes for a career-high 130 yards and a touchdown. Kewan Lacy was handed the ball 16 times and found the end zone on three of those carries while also rumbling for 108 rushing yards.
“Really pleased by the offensive balance,” said head coach Lane Kiffin in last weekend’s postseason press conference, via AtoZSports.com. “695 yards and 295 on the ground, in a game that only two returning starters on offense and two on defense.”
On the defensive end, Ole Miss allowed a total of 268 yards, with just 68 passing yards. Georgia State could only muster 10 first downs against the Rebels while going 2-15 from on third downs. Zxavian Harris was responsible for the lone Mississippi interception, the first for the defensive tackle in his career. The 6-foot-7, 320-pound senior also had the team’s lone sack on the day, giving him 3.5 in his career. Junior linebacker TJ Dottery was the team’s tackle leader with nine.
Injury report
- CB Jaylon Braxton (undisclosed) questionable
- TE Luke Hasz (ankle) questionable
- LG Delano Townsend (leg) questionable
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Kentucky has gut check in week one win
After a slow first three quarters, action heated up over the final 15 minutes and Kentucky was able to outlast an upstart Toledo side, as both teams scored 14 points in the final frame. The defense allowed the Wildcats to get the edge by keeping the Rockets to just two points through three quarters.
The Wildcats know that they have a lot of work to do on the offensive side if this team is going to move the ball against a strong Ole Miss defense. Against Toledo, Kentucky had just 305 total yards and 17 first downs. Zach Calzada experienced his worst game under center, going 10-23 for 85 yards and an interception. The senior transfer from Incarnate Word was able to find the end zone with his legs but had only 14 rushing yards on 10 carries. The run game wasn’t a complete wash as Dante Dowdell put in work, grinding out 129 yards and scoring a touchdown on 14 carries. The Wildcats ran for 220 runs in the win. Tight end Josh Kattus was the team’s top receiver on the day with three catches and 43 yards.
Kentucky’s defense stood very firm over the course of three quarters, before allowing a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter. They kept Toledo to 17 first downs and 329 total yards, smothering the run game which they held to 59 yards. The Wildcats forced two fumbles and Jonquis Hardaway came up with the team’s lone interception. The team also had three sacks in the win, two of them by Steven Solis Jr. who was recorded a second-quarter safety in the process.
“Fundamentally, if you follow the rules of the defense, more often than not, it’s going to put you in a good position,” said defensive coordinator Brad White, via UKAthletics.com. “If you play with clean eyes, skill and talent and technique and finish off the play.”
Injury report
- DL Mi’Quise Humphry-Grace (ankle) day-to-day
- RB Jamarion Wilcox (off field) suspended
- WR Cole Lanter (undisclosed) out
Ole Miss vs. Kentucky Pick
Spread Pick for Ole Miss vs. Kentucky
- Mississippi -10.5 (5 units)
This is a big-time revenge game for the Rebels, who fell to Kentucky last season, 20-17, in a major, early-season upset. Ole Miss was a +15.5 favorite at home in that matchup. They handled their first week of business with ease and are laser-focused on this one. It’s key for them for many reasons, the first is getting off on the right foot in conference play. The second has been mentioned already…revenge. Mississippi showed in week 1 that they are extremely fast, especially with Lacy in the backfield. I fully expect them to wear down the Kentucky defense and that should open the floodgates. On the other end, the Wildcats are going to find it extremely difficult to move the ball once Ole Miss makes the proper adjustments. Kentucky may be able to get things moving a little bit early on but if they do not take advantage of opportunities, they are going to be left in the dust. Ole Miss is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six against the Wildcats.
Take the Rebels giving the points.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,502.00 |
| 2 |  Pro Sports Picks | +1,421.00 |
| 3 |  Brick Haus Sports | +634.00 |
| 4 |  David Delano | +492.00 |
| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +355.00 |
Over/Under Pick for Ole Miss vs. Kentucky
- Over 50.5 (5 units)
Last season, the two teams combined for 37 points and hit the under against a 51.5-point total. The Rebels were completely asleep at the wheel in that matchup and it’s all they’ve been talking about heading into the rematch. The Kentucky defense did look strong in the first half of their season opener, but that was versus Toledo, and even then, they bent a bit in the final quarter. Ole Miss is going to throw everything at them and the Wildcats will struggle to keep pace. I would expect Kentucky to try and establish its passing game after abandoning things last week. Calzada is a seasoned vet and last week should be an anomaly on his track record. We don’t need much from the Wildcats, as I expect the Rebels to dominate here, but a couple of Kentucky scores would help the cause in a big way. Over the last four meetings, the teams have averaged a combined 58 points per game.
Take the over.
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