Missouri State Bears vs. New Mexico State Aggies Picks and Prediction, Wednesday October 22, 2025
Use Code SSWC The 2025 College Football season has been an incredible one thus far, and on Wednesday we'll see a fantastic matchup of Conference USA rivals with our Missouri State Bears vs. New Mexico State Aggies prediction.
The Missouri State Bears (3-3, 1-1 CUSA) have been up-and-down through six weeks of competition thus far in 2025, but with a solid record on the road, they'll come into this matchup full of confidence as they look to get back above .500.
On Wednesday they battle the New Mexico State Aggies (3-3, 1-2 CUSA), a team that's struggled as of late following a solid start to the 2025 season, but with the team having a 1-2 record in conference play, this is a must-win game for them. Read on to see our Missouri State Bears vs. New Mexico State Aggies prediction.
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Can Missouri State finally win two straight games?
The Missouri State Bears started their 2025 campaign with a loss, and since that point they've alternated wins and losses for six weeks, but with a solid 2-1 record away from home this year, they're looking to finally win two straight in this matchup. In their last game on Oct. 8, the Bears defeated Middle Tennessee State on the road 22-20. Freshman QB Deuce Bailey went 16/31 on the day with a score through the air and on the ground as the defense forced one turnover, enough to get the job done. Bailey threw for 278 yards with a touchdown in his first start with Jacob Clark (1,052yds, 8 TDs, 6 INTs) out with a knee injury and is listed as questionable.
Offensively, the Bears are all about the aerial attack, as they rank top-50 in the nation in passing yards, QB rating and yards per completion, but with a defense that gives up 394 yards and 30 points a game, it's easy to see why they've struggled for consistency.
The offense in Missouri State turned over a new leaf last time when they turned to freshman Bailey, who has 335 passing yards and two touchdowns on the season, but with the rushing attack leaving much to be desired, this isn't an easy role to play at the moment. The defense is allowing 394.8 yards per game overall (104th), 6.3 yards per play (121st) and 151.1 rushing yards per game (80th).
Can New Mexico State turn around recent momentum?
After two straight wins to start the season, the New Mexico State Aggies have dropped three of their last four games, but with a 3-0 record at home this season, they'll enter this matchup full of optimism against a Conference USA foe. This season, the Aggies have struggled on the offensive side of the ball, averaging just 23 points a game and just 66.3 yards per game on the ground (135th), but with a defense that limits their opponents to 24 points a night and 3.8 yards per rushing attept (57th), they've got the talent needed to be a threat in the Conference USA.
One position that New Mexico State have found consistency in however is the quarterback spot with senior Logan Fife leading the way this year with an 8/4 TD/INT ratio, but with just four rushing TD's on the season, that balance simply hasn't been found yet. Last time out for the Aggies was a tight loss to the Liberty Flames, with a solid day wth 242 yards and two touchdown's from Fife leading the way, and despite holding their opponents to less than 300 yards, they came up just short 30-27 as the Flames won the game on an 8-yard TD run with 36 seconds left in the contest. Kadarius Calloway lieads the Aggies with 230 ayrds rushing and three TDs. WR Donovan Feupel leads the receivers with 26 catches for 363 ayrds and two TDs.
Missouri State vs. New Mexico State picks
Moneyline pick for Missouri State vs. New Mexico State
- Missouri State -1.5 (4 units)
Despite being the road team in this one, Missouri State have flashed much more potential as of late, and with New Mexico State dropping three of their last four, this one could be a thrilling contest between Conference USA rivals.
On top of that, Missouri State have won two straight games on the road, averaging 275 yards in the air, so while the Bears should pick up the road win in this one. New Mexico State is averaging just 315.3 yards per game at home and just 70.7 rushing yards.
Over/under pick for Missouri State vs. New Mexico State
- Over 51.5 (4 units)
This season, the strength of both these teams has been their offense, and with both averaging 23 or more points a game this season, this should be a high-scoring matchup between two talented teams. At home, the Aggies can take advantage of a weak pass defense as both teams are subpar on that side of the ball.
For Missouri State, the over sits at 3-3 this season, with the team allowing an average of 30 points per game in 2025, and for New Mexico State, the over comes in at 3-3 in 2025, with 37 points scored in their last game played at home.
Keep it simple, take the over.
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