Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction and Picks for Wednesday, October 8th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Week 7 college football slate opens up on Wednesday night with a Conference USA clash between the Missouri State Bears (2-3, 0-1 CUSA) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4, 0-1 CUSA). We’ve got you covered with our Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 ET from Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, TN. Looking to win big this football season? We have the best College Football Picks to help you out!
Bears Drop Conference Opener
Coach Ryan Beard is back for his third season as the head coach of the Missouri State Bears football program, and he has logged a 14-14 (9-8 CONF) mark throughout his tenure. The Bears got bumped up to the FBS this season, so this is their inaugural year in C-USA. Missouri State didn’t get conference play started on a high note, losing its C-USA opener to Western Kentucky (27-22) on September 27th. The Bears fell to 2-3 overall, with their lone wins coming against Marshall (21-20) and UT Martin (42-10).
In terms of personnel, it’s redshirt senior Jacob Clark leading things under center this season. The signal caller has thrown for 1,195 yards on a 65.2% completion rate, adding eight touchdowns and six interceptions. WR Dash Luke has emerged as his top receiver, hauling in 22 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns. RB Shomari Lawrence, a transfer from FIU, has handled a bulk of the rushing workload. He has 286 yards and two touchdowns on 66 carries (4.3 YPC).
- Offensively, the Bears are scoring 16.5 points per game (114th), while averaging 360.0 yards per week (77th).
- Defensively, they are 120th in the country this year, conceding 37.0 points per game. They’re allowing 448.8 yards per contest, which is 118th.
Blue Raiders Slide To 1-4
As for the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, they’re still trying to get their feet underneath themselves in the second year under Coach Derek Mason. Coach Mason posted a 3-9 (2-6 CUSA) mark last year, and his Blue Raiders are just 1-4 (0-1 CUSA) in 2025. Their lone win came against Nevada (14-13), and it’s bookended by a pair of two-game losing streaks to Austin Peay (34-14) and Wisconsin (42-10), and to Marshall (42-28) and Kennesaw State (24-16), more recently. The Blue Raiders are now just 1-4 ATS and they’ve gone 3-2 to the under.
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Redshirt senior QB Nicholas Vattiato returns under center for Middle Tennessee this season. The quarterback has thrown for 1,125 yards on a 58.7% completion rate, logging six touchdowns and four interceptions. Out wide, WR Nahzae Cox is the top receiver with 24 catches, four touchdowns, and 341 yards. RB Jekail Middlebrook has spearheaded the rushing attack, gaining 340 yards and two touchdowns on 59 totes (5.8 YPC).
- After their 0-1 conference start, the Blue Raiders are currently priced at +10000 to win the Conference USA championship.
- Middle Tennessee’s offense has been subpar this season, ranking 114th in scoring (16.5 PPG), while putting up 351.5 yards per game (84th).
- On the defensive side, the Blue Raiders are 97th this season, allowing 30.3 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 85th, conceding 401.8 yards per contest.
Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee Pick
Spread Pick for Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee
- Missouri State Bears -2.5 (-110) (5 units)
Missouri State, which has only been an FCS football team for two months, finds itself as a 2.5-point road favorite on Wednesday night. That just speaks to how poorly Middle Tennessee has played. The Blue Raiders have not looked good under Coach Derek Mason, going only 4-13 (2-7 CUSA) during his 1+ year time with the team. With all of that being said, I think it’s fair that the Bears are road favorites, and I’m going to lay the points with them in this spot.
Missouri State is coming off of a tight 27-22 home loss to a Western Kentucky squad that’s 4-1 and sits atop the C-USA standings. Their other losses were to USC (73-13) and SMU (28-10), which are top-tier Power Four programs. Being that the Bears get a matchup against a truly inferior opponent, I think they take care of business. They’re 6-3 ATS in their last nine games, and they’ll face a Blue Raiders team that’s just 1-7 both SU and ATS in its last eight contests.
Over/Under Pick for Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee
- Under 51.5 (-110) (5 units)
On paper, these are two of the worst defenses in the country, each allowing at more than 30 points per game. However, these numbers are skewed due to non-conference contests against superior opposition. I think this creates a good opportunity to play the under at a number that’s inflated due to the unimpressive stats.
For example, Missouri State actually played quite well against a true air raid offense of Western Kentucky, losing only 27-22 and seeing the game finish with only 49 points. Middle Tennessee was the same way, losing 24-16 to Kennesaw State in their conference opener and combining for only 40 points. Missouri State has been an “under machine” this season, going 4-1 to the under. They should have no problem shutting down this Middle Tennessee offense that’s struggling to move the ball in 2025. Give me the under.
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