Missouri vs Arkansas Picks and Predictions for Saturday, October 31, 2026
Missouri arrives in Fayetteville with a 5-2 record and plenty to improve after getting beaten 31-3 by Ole Miss. The No. 23 Tigers are ninth in the SEC at 2-2, with both conference losses coming on the road. Arkansas has had a difficult season, although a 31-21 win at Vanderbilt brought its record to 3-4. The Razorbacks sit 14th in the SEC at 1-3. Saturday's game starts at 7:45 pm ET at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on SEC Network. Missouri is a 10-point favorite, with the total at 49.5. See our free NCAAF picks for other games.
Missouri Needs More From Its Offense
Three points against Ole Miss was a miserable return for an offense that had scored 72 across its previous two games. Missouri couldn't match the Rebels in a 31-3 defeat on October 17, leaving the Tigers with a second SEC road loss. They'd also fallen 31-24 at Mississippi State in September. At home, things have looked much better. Missouri beat Florida 45-17 and kept Texas A&M to six points in a 27-6 victory. The Tigers haven't played since the Ole Miss game, giving them a break before another trip into conference territory.
There's plenty for Arkansas to worry about when Jamal Roberts gets the ball. He's already rushed for 867 yards and eight touchdowns, including an 80-yard run, and averages 5.2 yards per attempt. Austin Simmons has also been careful with his throws, completing 63.2% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Cayden Lee has 47 catches for 678 yards, but Donovan Olugbode actually leads the receivers in touchdowns with six. Missouri has defensive players capable of disrupting drives, too. Daeden Hopkins has recorded seven sacks, while Nicholas Rodriguez has 76 tackles.
Injuries: D. Smith and Brett Norfleet are questionable. G. Hoffman, J. Brady, C. Green and A. Hardy are out.
Arkansas Hoping to Build on Vanderbilt Victory
It's been a mixed few weeks for Arkansas. The Razorbacks went to Vanderbilt and won 31-21 on October 17, ending a stretch that included losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M. They managed only seven points in College Station, then lost 24-17 to Tennessee at home. Arkansas had beaten Tulsa 34-6 before those defeats, so finding a steady level of play has been difficult. The Razorbacks also gave up 45 points against Georgia earlier in the season.
KJ Jackson has 1,444 passing yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. His favorite receiver has been Chris Marshall, who has 43 catches for 633 yards, although Marshall is questionable for Saturday. Arkansas hasn't established a clear lead runner. Braylen Russell has 205 yards, Sutton Smith has 195 and Cam Settles has 176. Together, they've scored five rushing touchdowns, but the team is averaging only 3.3 yards per attempt. On defense, Ja'Quavion Smith leads the Razorbacks with 48 tackles. Quincy Rhodes Jr. has three sacks, and Miguel Mitchell has picked off two passes.
Injuries: Chris Marshall is questionable. H. Hendrix and M. Lassiter are out.
Key To The Game
Missouri has a clear advantage in the backfield. Roberts has rushed for more yards than Arkansas's entire leading trio of running backs combined, and his ability to gain five yards at a time could cause problems. The Razorbacks also have to protect Jackson against Hopkins, who already has seven sacks. Missouri's concern is its road record after losses at Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Arkansas can make things interesting if Jackson finds Marshall downfield, but Marshall's questionable status adds another concern for the home team.
Missouri vs Arkansas Game Pick
- Missouri Tigers -10
Missouri's three-point performance against Ole Miss was disappointing, but there's enough talent here to expect a better showing. Simmons has thrown just two interceptions, and Roberts gives the Tigers a considerable advantage on the ground. Arkansas deserves credit for beating Vanderbilt, although the Razorbacks had scored only 24 combined points in their previous two games. Missouri also has more ways to create pressure defensively. The Tigers should be able to control the rushing battle and make Jackson work for his yards. I'm taking Missouri to win by at least 11 points.
Missouri vs Arkansas Over/Under Pick
- Under 49.5
Arkansas has scored 17 points or fewer in three of its last five games. Missouri's offense has produced some big numbers, including 45 against Florida, but the Tigers managed only three at Ole Miss. Both teams have shown they can struggle against stronger SEC opponents. Roberts should get plenty of carries for Missouri, particularly if the Tigers build a lead. That could keep the clock moving and reduce the number of possessions. Arkansas might contribute enough to stay competitive for a while, but I don't see both offenses delivering big totals. Under 49.5 is my choice.