Missouri vs. Auburn Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 18th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The SEC football season is in full swing, and there’s an intriguing conference clash scheduled for Saturday night between the #16 Missouri Tigers (5-1, 1-1 SEC) and the Auburn Tigers (3-3, 0-3 SEC). We’ve got you covered with our Missouri vs. Auburn prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 ET from Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, AL. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
#16 Tigers’ 5-0 Streak Snapped
Coach Eli Drinkwitz is now in his sixth season as the head coach of the Missouri Tigers, and his program is starting to assert itself as a serious threat in the SEC. They went 11-2 (6-2 SEC) in 2023, 10-3 (5-3 SEC) in 2024, and are off to a solid 5-1 (1-1 SEC) start this season. Mizzou has had a relatively easy schedule so far, with the only notable wins coming against Kansas (42-31) and South Carolina (29-20). They stepped up in completion last week and had their 5-0 record blemished in a 27-24 home loss to #8 Alabama. From here, the Tigers are priced at +310 to make the College Football Playoff.
In terms of personnel, it’s the grad transfer from Penn State, Beau Pribula, leading the offense this season. The signal caller has thrown for 1,365 yards on a 72.8% completion rate, adding 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. Out wide, WRs Kevin Coleman Jr. (388 yards, 1 TD) and Marquis Johnson (296 yards, 2 TD) have emerged as the lead receivers. RB Ahmed Hardy has been a workhorse in the rushing attack, gaining 782 yards and nine touchdowns on 115 carries (6.8 YPC).
- Offensively, the Tigers are scoring 37.8 points per game (13th), while averaging 500.6 yards per week (sixth).
- Defensively, they are 23rd in the country this year, conceding 18.8 points per game. They’re allowing only 223.6 yards per contest, which is second.
Auburn Drops Third Straight Game
As for Coach Hugh Freeze and his Auburn Tigers, they had high hopes entering the 2025 campaign. Auburn got the year started with a nice road win over Baylor (38-24) and eventually moved to 3-0, but now they’ve dropped three consecutive SEC games. The recent string of losses came at the hands of #11 Oklahoma (24-17), #9 Texas A&M (16-10), and #10 Georgia (20-10), most recently. Things won’t get easier for the Tigers, as three of their final six games are against ranked SEC opponents.
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One of the key reasons for the optimism heading into 2025 was that the program was welcoming in Oklahoma transfer QB Jackson Arnold. Arnold has been pedestrian, throwing for 983 yards on a 64.2% completion rate, adding five touchdowns and no picks. He’s a threat on the ground as well, adding 247 yards and six touchdowns on 83 carries (3.0 YPC). RB Jeremiah Cobb is the lead back, registering 453 yards and four touchdowns on 70 totes (6.5 YPC). WRs Cam Coleman (305 yards, 2 TD) and Eric Singleton Jr. (279 yards, 2TD) are the top performers in the passing game.
- Auburn’s offense has been mediocre this season, ranking 77th in scoring (24.7 PPG), while putting up 331.3 yards per game (103rd).
- On the defensive side, the Tigers are 14th this season, allowing 17.0 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 21st, conceding 312.3 yards per contest.
Missouri vs. Auburn Pick
Spread Pick for Missouri vs. Auburn
- Missouri Tigers -1.5 (-110) (5 units)
This is one of the games where I was potentially looking to fade Missouri. If this spread was out to Auburn +3.0 or more, I would’ve pulled the trigger on the home side. However, that’s not the case, and this contest is sitting in the pick ‘em range. Both teams have holes and I do think Mizzou could be a potential fraud at 5-1, but I don’t think they’ll trip up against a bottom-of-the-barrel Auburn team. I’ll back Missouri. Auburn is also 1-11 against nationally ranked teams under Freeze and just 5-14 in SEC play.
Mizzou has a lot of nice things going for them in this road matchup. Their defense is elite, allowing only 223.6 yards per contest. They also have a veteran quarterback, so road turnovers shouldn’t be an issue. And finally, their rushing attack is lethal. They’re second in the nation in rushing yards per game (280.8). I expect them to out-physical this Auburn team in the trenches and notch a close victory.
Over/Under Pick for Missouri vs. Auburn
- Under 43.5 (-105) (5 units)
One of the only “key numbers” when betting totals is 44.0, and unfortunately, we’re on the wrong side of this one. We’ll get burned in a 24-20 or 23-21 type of final. However, does anyone see Auburn scoring 20+ points? I don’t! In their three SEC games thus far, they haven’t reached the 20-point threshold and are averaging only 12.3 points per game. Here comes another elite defense in Mizzou.
On the flip side, Auburn’s defense is its strength. Against FBS-level opposition, they’re giving up only 17.0 points per game. This should be a grind-it-out type of game between two run-heavy programs. So, even though we’re on the wrong side of 44.0, I really don’t expect it’ll matter. I think Mizzou escapes with a 21-20 or 21-17 win, keeping the score under.
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