Missouri vs Kansas Picks and Prediction for Friday September 11 2026

The No. 25 Missouri Tigers travel to David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Kansas, to face the Kansas Jayhawks on Friday, September 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on FOX. Both teams are 1-0 after dominant season-opening victories, with Missouri defeating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14 and Kansas rolling past Long Island 51-6. Missouri won last year's Border War 42-31 and has captured five of the last six meetings. The Tigers are currently favored by 6.5 points with the total around 51.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Missouri Offense Impresses in Opening Victory

Missouri dominated Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14 and finished with a 562-198 advantage in total offense. The Tigers were particularly impressive during the first half, building a 40-0 lead while outgaining the Golden Lions 376-6. That performance provided an encouraging first look at Missouri's revamped offense.

Austin Simmons was outstanding in his Missouri debut, completing 17 of 19 passes for 252 yards and four touchdowns before his night ended early. Donovan Olugbode caught eight passes for 116 yards and two touchdowns, while Shaun Terry II also caught two scoring passes. Missouri wasn't nearly as dominant on the ground, however, with Jamal Roberts leading the team with 47 yards on 13 carries.

Missouri's defense gives the Tigers another important advantage. Holding Arkansas-Pine Bluff to 198 total yards was impressive, although Kansas represents a massive increase in competition. Missouri will need that defense after allowing Kansas to build an early 21-6 advantage in last year's matchup before rallying for the victory.

Kansas Shows Excellent Offensive Balance

Kansas was equally dominant in its opener, beating Long Island 51-6 while accumulating 613 total yards. The Jayhawks produced 336 passing yards and 277 rushing yards while holding LIU to only 146 total yards. Kansas also finished with 29 first downs and possessed the football for more than 33 minutes.

Isaiah Marshall completed 14 of 19 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns while adding 49 rushing yards. Yasin Willis rushed 11 times for 72 yards and two scores, while Nik McMillan caught six passes for 130 yards and a touchdown. That balance should present Missouri with a considerably more difficult defensive assignment than it faced in Week 1.

The Jayhawks also generated 11 tackles for loss against LIU, showing the ability to disrupt plays in the backfield. Kansas gets the additional benefit of playing the Border War at home for the first time since 2005, and the Jayhawks should have plenty of motivation after letting a 15-point first-quarter lead slip away in last season's 42-31 loss.

Missouri vs Kansas Picks and Prediction

Pick: Kansas +6.5

Missouri deserves to be favored, but Kansas +6.5 is the better betting position. Both teams dominated weaker competition in Week 1, but Kansas showed excellent offensive balance with 613 total yards, including 277 on the ground. Missouri's passing attack looked excellent behind Simmons, but the Tigers generated only 47 rushing yards from their leading back. Kansas also gets this rivalry at home after leading Missouri multiple times in last year's game before eventually losing 42-31. This has the ingredients for a one-possession Border War, making Kansas +6.5 the play.

Pick: Over 51.5

The Over 51.5 is my preferred total. Missouri scored 54 points in its opener behind four first-half touchdown passes from Simmons, while Kansas scored 51 and produced 613 yards with excellent balance between its passing and rushing attacks. Last year's matchup produced 73 combined points, and both offenses showed enough explosiveness in Week 1 to create another game that reaches the upper 20s on each side. A score around 30-27 or 31-27 fits the matchup. Take Over 51.5.

Final Picks: Kansas +6.5 and Over 51.5