Monmouth vs Western Michigan Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The Monmouth Hawks travel to Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, Michigan, to face the Western Michigan Broncos on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 PM ET on ESPN+. Monmouth enters at 1-1 after defeating Sacred Heart 31-24, while Western Michigan is 0-1 after coming within seconds of a major upset in a 13-12 loss at No. 16 Michigan. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Monmouth Finds a Way Against Sacred Heart

Monmouth bounced back from its 38-14 season-opening loss at Tennessee Tech by beating Sacred Heart 31-24. The Hawks trailed during the game but produced the go-ahead touchdown with 2:54 remaining to give first-year head coach Jeff Gallo his first career victory.

Frankie Weaver continued to provide production through the air, throwing for 237 yards and three touchdowns. Kenny Smith Jr. scored twice, including the decisive fourth-quarter touchdown, while Gavin Nelson and Elijah Jennings caught touchdown passes. Monmouth was particularly efficient when scoring opportunities appeared, going a perfect 5-for-5 in the red zone and converting seven of 12 third downs.

There are defensive concerns entering Kalamazoo. Sacred Heart outgained Monmouth 408-350, rushed for 217 yards and possessed the football for more than 35 minutes. The Hawks overcame those numbers with red-zone efficiency, but giving Western Michigan that much success on the ground could create a very different result against an FBS opponent.

Western Michigan Nearly Shocks No. 16 Michigan

Western Michigan couldn’t have come much closer to pulling one of the biggest upsets of the opening weekend. The Broncos carried a 12-7 lead into the final seconds at Michigan before losing 13-12 on a 47-yard Hail Mary as time expired.

The offense wasn’t explosive, producing only 221 total yards, but Western Michigan controlled the football for an incredible 40:08 and converted eight of 18 third downs. Broc Lowry completed 15 of 21 passes for 89 yards and rushed for another 35. Jalen Buckley led the ground game with 62 yards, while Aveion Chenault caught six passes for 53 yards.

Western Michigan’s defense was the bigger story. The Broncos forced three Michigan turnovers and held the Wolverines to 276 total yards, including only 106 rushing. Western Michigan now returns to Waldo Stadium and takes a dramatic drop in competition. If the Broncos bring anything close to that defensive performance into Saturday, Monmouth is going to have difficulty sustaining drives.

Monmouth vs Western Michigan Picks and Prediction

Pick: Western Michigan -17.5 or Better

With conventional sportsbook odds not yet posted, Western Michigan -17.5 or better is my target. Monmouth just allowed Sacred Heart to accumulate 408 yards and 217 on the ground, while Western Michigan went into the Big House and came one play away from beating No. 16 Michigan. The Broncos’ offense needs improvement, but this is a much more favorable matchup, and their defense should consistently give them good field position. If the market opens below three touchdowns, take Western Michigan -17.5 or better.

Pick: Under 48.5

The Under 48.5 is my preferred total target. Western Michigan’s opener produced just 25 combined points, and the Broncos held Michigan to 276 yards while controlling possession for more than 40 minutes. Monmouth can score against FCS competition, but this is a substantial defensive upgrade after the Hawks managed 350 yards against Sacred Heart. Western Michigan should control the matchup without needing a huge offensive performance. Something around 31-10 or 34-10 fits well. Take the Under if the total is set at 48.5 or higher.

Final Picks: Western Michigan -17.5 or better and Under 48.5 or higher