Montana State vs Nevada Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026
The Montana State Bobcats travel to Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nevada, to face the Nevada Wolf Pack on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 PM ET. Montana State enters at 2-0 after beating Butler 51-24, while Nevada is 1-0 following an impressive 49-14 victory over Western Kentucky. The current betting market has Montana State favored by 5.5 points with the total set at 48.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.
Montana State Brings Championship-Level Offense
Defending FCS national champion Montana State has started its season 2-0 and enters Reno after rolling past Butler 51-24. The Bobcats broke open that game with 20 second-quarter points and led 30-3 at halftime.
Justin Lamson threw for 239 yards and two touchdowns while also scoring on the ground. Montana State finished with 498 total yards, including 332 through the air and 166 rushing.
Adam Jones rushed for 77 yards and a touchdown, while Taco Dowler caught five passes for 97 yards and a score. Jabez Woods provided another explosive play by returning a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown.
The offensive balance is what makes Montana State particularly difficult to defend. The Bobcats can establish their running game but aren't dependent on it, as Lamson demonstrated against Butler.
Montana State now gets an opportunity to prove that its success translates against an FBS opponent that looked excellent in its own opener.
Nevada Makes One of Week 1's Biggest Statements
Nevada entered its opener as a slight underdog against Western Kentucky and proceeded to dominate the Hilltoppers 49-14. The Wolf Pack controlled the game on the ground and turned what was expected to be a competitive matchup into a rout.
Carter Jones threw two touchdown passes, while Dominic Kelley scored twice, including an explosive 72-yard touchdown run. Nevada consistently won at the line of scrimmage and prevented Western Kentucky from establishing the offensive rhythm that normally makes the Hilltoppers dangerous.
The 35-point margin is particularly significant because Western Kentucky entered as an established FBS program rather than an overmatched lower-division opponent. Nevada didn't simply win its opener; the Wolf Pack dramatically exceeded expectations.
That makes this matchup fascinating. Oddsmakers still respect Montana State enough to install the Bobcats as road favorites despite Nevada's dominant opening performance.
Montana State vs Nevada Picks and Prediction
Pick: Nevada +5.5
Nevada +5.5 is my preferred side. Montana State deserves tremendous respect and is absolutely capable of winning outright, but Nevada's 49-14 victory over Western Kentucky is too impressive to ignore. The Wolf Pack demonstrated an explosive running game and now get Montana State at Mackay Stadium. The Bobcats are stepping up from Butler while Nevada just dominated an FBS opponent by 35 points. Getting more than a field goal with the home team provides enough value. Take Nevada +5.5.
Pick: Over 48.5
The Over 48.5 is my preferred total. Montana State just produced 51 points and 498 yards, while Nevada scored 49 in its opener. Both teams have demonstrated explosive rushing ability, and the Bobcats also showed they can attack through the air with Lamson. We don't need anything close to another 50-point performance from either side. A competitive game around 28-27 or 30-24 comfortably clears this number. Take Over 48.5.
Final Picks: Nevada +5.5 and Over 48.5