Navy Midshipmen vs Memphis Tigers Picks and Prediction - November 27, 2025
Use Code SSWC Thursday evening AAC College football action, and we have a Navy vs Memphis prediction locked and loaded for you. Navy enters this game off a 41-38 home win over South Florida to move to 8-2 on the year. Memphis checks in at 8-3 on the year, and they are off a 31-27 loss at East Carolina. These teams met last year, and Navy won that game at home by a score of 56-44. Can Memphis get some revenge in this one? Read on to see our Navy vs Memphis prediction.
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Navy Takes Down South Florida
Navy enters this matchup at 8-2, fresh off a dramatic 41-38 win over South Florida on November 15 in Annapolis. The Midshipmen leaned on their trademark rushing attack to control the game, with Alex Tecza breaking off several big runs and quarterback Blake Horvath balancing the offense with both his legs and arm. Wideout Eli Heidenreich provided the spark in the passing game, hauling in five catches for 146 yards, including a long strike that flipped momentum in the second half. South Florida rallied late, but Navy’s ability to grind out yards on the ground and chew clock proved decisive, as a late field goal sealed the win and kept their strong season rolling.
The Midshipmen’s identity is clear: they run the ball, and they run it better than anyone in the country. Averaging 308.2 rushing yards per game, Navy ranks first nationally, and Horvath has been the centerpiece with 986 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. Tecza adds another dimension with 669 yards and seven scores, while Braxton Woodson has chipped in 414 yards and six touchdowns, giving them multiple ball carriers who can break games open. Heidenreich has emerged as the lone consistent receiving threat, with 741 yards and four touchdowns, but the passing game is more of a change-up than a staple. This relentless ground attack wears down defenses, controls tempo, and keeps opposing offenses off the field, which is exactly how Navy has built its success this season.
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Defensively, Navy has been more vulnerable, giving up 409.8 yards per game and ranking 109th against the pass at 263.9 yards allowed per contest. Their run defense has been steadier, holding opponents to 145.9 yards per game, but the lack of turnovers — just five takeaways all season — has been a glaring weakness. Against Memphis, the Midshipmen will need to limit explosive plays through the air and force the Tigers into long, sustained drives. If Navy can keep Brendon Lewis and Cortez Braham Jr. from hitting big passing gains, their rushing attack should allow them to dictate the pace. The formula is simple but effective: grind the clock, control the line of scrimmage, and make Memphis play Navy’s brand of football.
Memphis Falls Short To The Pirates
Memphis comes in at 8-3, still stinging from a 31-27 loss to East Carolina on November 15. The Tigers had opportunities to close out the game, but a late defensive lapse allowed ECU to score the go-ahead touchdown in the final minutes. Quarterback Brendon Lewis threw for 209 yards and a touchdown while adding another score on the ground, showing his dual-threat ability. Running back Sutton Smith provided a highlight with an 84-yard touchdown run, and Cortez Braham Jr. was reliable as ever with nine catches for 79 yards. Despite the offensive production, Memphis couldn’t protect its lead, and the defeat marked their second straight setback in a season that had previously been trending upward.
The Tigers’ offense has been one of the most balanced in the AAC, averaging 432.7 yards per game with 240.3 through the air and 192.5 on the ground. Lewis has been the engine, throwing for 2,395 yards and 13 touchdowns while rushing for 582 yards and nine scores, making him one of the most versatile quarterbacks in the conference. The backfield has been productive as well, with Greg Desrosiers Jr. and Landon Smith combining for over 1,100 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, giving Memphis multiple options to keep defenses honest. Braham Jr. has been the go-to receiver with 824 yards and seven touchdowns, while Demarcus Hawkins adds another vertical threat with 587 yards. Memphis averages 36.2 points per game, ranking 29th nationally, and their ability to strike quickly through the air makes them dangerous against any opponent.
On defense, Memphis has been steadier than Navy, allowing 366.6 yards per game and just 22 points per contest, which ranks 30th nationally. Their run defense has been particularly strong at 127.4 yards allowed per game, a critical strength heading into a matchup against the nation’s top rushing offense. The secondary has been more vulnerable, giving up 239.3 passing yards per game, but Navy’s limited aerial attack means the Tigers can focus on stacking the box. Linebacker Sam Brumfield has been the anchor with 89 tackles, and the defense has generated 12 takeaways, giving them the ability to flip momentum. Against Navy, Memphis will need to stay disciplined against the option, force Horvath into passing situations, and rely on their balanced offense to put pressure on the Midshipmen. If they can slow down the ground game even slightly, their offensive firepower could tilt the contest in their favor.
Navy vs Memphis Pick
Navy vs Memphis Spread Pick
- Navy +5 (5 Units)
Navy +5 looks appealing because of how well their ground game travels and controls tempo. The Midshipmen lead the nation in rushing at 308.2 yards per game, with Blake Horvath, Alex Tecza, and Gavin Woodson all capable of breaking off chunk plays. That kind of production not only shortens games but also keeps opposing offenses on the sideline, which is critical against a Memphis team that thrives on balance and quick-strike ability. Navy’s ability to grind out long drives and convert in the red zone makes them a tough underdog to put away, especially when they’re catching points.
Memphis has the offensive firepower to score, but their defense has shown cracks, particularly against physical rushing attacks. While they allow just 127.4 rushing yards per game, they haven’t faced many teams with Navy’s relentless option scheme, and the Tigers’ tendency to give up late scores has cost them in close games. Navy’s style is tailor-made to keep this matchup tight, and with their ability to control possession and limit turnovers, grabbing the Midshipmen at +5 provides value in what projects to be a one-possession contest deep into the fourth quarter.
Navy vs Memphis Over/Under Pick
- Under 58 (4 Units)
The Under 58 makes sense here because Navy’s style naturally shortens games and limits possessions, while Memphis has shown enough defensive strength to keep the Midshipmen from breaking loose. Navy averages nearly 309 rushing yards per game, but their methodical option attack chews clock and often produces long drives rather than quick strikes. Memphis, meanwhile, allows just 22 points per game and has one of the better run defenses in the AAC at 127.4 yards allowed per contest, which should slow Navy’s production. On the other side, the Midshipmen defense has been shaky against the pass, but Memphis isn’t a pure air-raid team—they balance their offense with the run. That combination points toward a game where both teams move the ball but don’t create enough explosive scoring to push past 58.
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