Navy Midshipmen vs North Texas Mean Green Prediction and Picks - November 1, 2025
Use Code SSWC Friday evening American Athletic Conference College Football action, and we have a Navy vs North Texas Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Midshipmen come in with a perfect 7-0 mark and off a 42-32 home win over FAU. North Texas is off a 54-20 road win over Charlotte to improve to 7-1 on the year. Navy won the last meeting back in 2023 by a score of 27-24 at home. Read on to see our Navy vs North Texas prediction.
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Navy Remains Perfect On The Year
Navy rolls into Denton with a perfect 7-0 record, fresh off a 42-32 win over Florida Atlantic that tied the program’s all-time winning streak at ten games. The Midshipmen leaned on their trademark ground game, piling up 397 rushing yards while quarterback Blake Horvath stole the show with 174 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Running back Brandon Chatman added 141 yards of his own, giving Navy a one-two punch that FAU simply couldn’t contain. The Midshipmen’s ability to wear down defenses late was on full display, as they scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to put the game away.
What makes Navy so dangerous is how efficiently they execute their option attack. Horvath has been steady as both a runner and passer, and while the passing game is limited, it doesn’t need to be prolific when the ground game is averaging over 318 rushing yards per contest, the best mark in the nation. Alex Tecza and Chatman provide balance in the backfield, and wideout Eli Heidenreich has been a reliable target when Navy does go to the air. The Midshipmen also thrive on third downs, converting at a 53.8 percent clip, which ranks among the top five nationally. That ability to extend drives and control the clock has been a major reason for their unbeaten start.
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Defensively, Navy has been opportunistic. Against FAU, linebacker Coleman Cauley forced two turnovers in his first career start, both of which directly led to touchdowns. The Midshipmen are allowing 23 points per game, which puts them in the middle of the pack nationally, but they’ve been stout against the run, giving up just 117 yards per game on the ground. The secondary has been more vulnerable, allowing over 250 passing yards per contest, and that’s the area that will be tested most against North Texas. Still, Navy’s physicality and ability to generate turnovers have consistently swung momentum in their favor, and they’ll need more of that against one of the most explosive offenses in the country.
North Texas Crushes Charlotte On The Road
North Texas enters this matchup at 7-1, coming off a 54-20 demolition of Charlotte where redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker etched his name into the record books. Mestemaker threw for a staggering 608 yards and four touchdowns, setting both a school and American Conference record. Three different receivers topped 100 yards in that game, led by Wyatt Young’s 190-yard performance, while Caleb Hawkins and Cameron Dorner each found the end zone. The Mean Green scored 37 unanswered points in the second half, showing just how quickly their offense can overwhelm an opponent.
This is a team that has been lighting up scoreboards all season. North Texas leads the nation in scoring at 46.1 points per game and ranks top five in total offense, averaging nearly 500 yards per contest. Mestemaker has already thrown for over 2,400 yards with 21 touchdowns, spreading the ball around to a deep receiving corps that includes Young, Dorner, and Landon Sides. The ground game isn’t an afterthought either, with Hawkins and Kiefer Sibley combining for over 900 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. That balance makes the Mean Green incredibly difficult to defend, as defenses can’t simply key in on the pass without risking big plays on the ground.
Defensively, North Texas has been more of a mixed bag. They’re giving up 25 points per game, which ranks in the bottom half nationally, and their run defense has been leaky at times, allowing nearly 191 rushing yards per contest. That’s a concerning number against a Navy team that thrives on pounding the ball between the tackles. However, the Mean Green have been opportunistic, forcing 17 turnovers already this season, which ranks among the top ten in the country. If they can create a few takeaways and give Mestemaker extra possessions, their offense is more than capable of putting this game out of reach. The question is whether their defense can hold up long enough against Navy’s relentless rushing attack to let the offense do its damage.
Navy vs North Texas Pick
Navy vs North Texas Spread Pick
- Navy +7 (4 Units)
Taking Navy +7 makes sense when you look at how their style of play can frustrate a team like North Texas. The Midshipmen lead the nation in rushing at over 318 yards per game, and their triple-option attack is built to chew clock, shorten games, and limit possessions. That’s the exact formula you want when facing one of the country’s most explosive passing offenses. Blake Horvath has been steady directing the option, and with Brandon Chatman and Alex Tecza pounding the ball inside, Navy has the ability to string together long, time-consuming drives. Even if they don’t finish every possession with touchdowns, the way they control tempo keeps games close and makes covering a full touchdown spread much more realistic.
On the other side, North Texas has been electric offensively, but their defense has been vulnerable, especially against the run, giving up nearly 191 rushing yards per game. That’s a glaring weakness against a Navy team that thrives on wearing defenses down in the trenches. The Mean Green can score in bunches, but if Navy’s defense can force a turnover or two and keep Drew Mestemaker from hitting too many deep shots, the Midshipmen’s ground game should be enough to keep this within striking distance. With their ability to dictate pace and grind out possessions, Navy looks like the right side catching a touchdown.
Navy vs North Texas Over/Under Pick
- Over 65.5 (5 Units)
The over 65.5 feels like the right call because both teams bring explosive, high-volume offenses with very different strengths that can still push the pace. Navy leads the nation in rushing at more than 318 yards per game, and their triple-option attack is built to grind defenses down while still producing chunk plays on the ground. On the other side, North Texas is averaging 46.1 points per game behind Drew Mestemaker’s record-setting passing numbers, with a deep receiving corps that can stretch the field in a hurry. Add in the fact that the Mean Green defense has been giving up nearly 191 rushing yards per game, while Navy’s secondary has been vulnerable to the pass, and you’ve got a matchup where both sides should find ways to score. With contrasting styles but plenty of firepower, this game has all the makings of a shootout that clears the number.
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