Navy vs UAB Picks and Prediction for Friday September 25 2026

The Navy Midshipmen visit the UAB Blazers at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama, on Friday, September 25, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET with national coverage on ESPN. Navy enters at 1-1 while UAB sits at 1-2, making this an important early American Conference matchup. Navy has won all three previous meetings between the programs, including a 38-24 victory last season. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.

Navy Needs a Defensive Response

Navy opened the season with a convincing 42-15 victory over Towson before suffering a 38-30 loss at Florida Atlantic. The Midshipmen therefore arrive in Birmingham at 1-1 and searching for a response after allowing five passing touchdowns and 386 yards through the air in their first conference defeat.

The positive is that Navy still generated 30 points in the loss. The Midshipmen trailed badly but responded with 23 unanswered points and made the game competitive late. That ability to keep producing offensively is encouraging heading into a matchup against a UAB defense that has already experienced some uneven performances.

Navy also owns a clear recent series advantage. The Midshipmen have beaten UAB in each of the three meetings, scoring 31, 41 and 38 points. Navy accumulated 463 total yards in last year’s matchup, including 295 on the ground. UAB knows exactly what is coming schematically, but knowing how to defend Navy and actually stopping it have been two different things in this series.

UAB Gets the Midshipmen at Home

UAB enters at 1-2 and returns to Protective Stadium for a nationally televised conference game. The Blazers’ lone victory came at home, a 26-20 win over ULM, while their early season has also included a 42-23 defeat. That inconsistency makes this a difficult matchup to price before established sportsbook numbers become widely available.

The most concerning matchup is UAB’s recent history against Navy’s rushing offense. In the last three meetings, Navy has produced 269, 227 and 295 rushing yards. UAB surrendered 38 points in last season’s matchup despite producing more than 400 total yards itself, demonstrating how difficult it can be to overcome Navy once the Midshipmen establish their preferred offensive rhythm.

Home field gives the Blazers an opportunity to reverse that trend, but their offense may need to be highly efficient. Falling behind Navy creates problems because the Midshipmen can shorten the game with extended possessions. UAB’s best route is to score early, force Navy to chase the game and attack the same defensive vulnerabilities that Florida Atlantic exposed.

Navy vs UAB Picks and Prediction

Pick: Navy Moneyline

UAB’s home field deserves respect, but Navy’s 3-0 record in the series is difficult to dismiss. The Midshipmen have repeatedly run effectively against this defense, and their offense still scored 30 points despite losing at Florida Atlantic. Navy needs substantial defensive improvement, but the matchup is favorable enough offensively to back the Midshipmen outright rather than guessing at an unavailable spread.

Pick: Over 55.5 or Lower

This is my preferred total direction if the market gives us 55.5 or less. Navy’s first two games produced 57 and 68 combined points, while recent Navy-UAB meetings have included 62 points in 2025 and 59 in 2024. UAB has also demonstrated enough offensive capability to contribute against a Navy defense that just surrendered 38. The combination of Navy’s rushing efficiency and defensive vulnerability makes the over more attractive than trying to project a suddenly low-scoring game.

Final Picks: Navy Moneyline and Over 55.5 or Lower