NC State vs. Duke Prediction and Picks for Saturday, September 20th, 2025
The ACC football season is in full swing, and we have a fun matchup on Saturday afternoon between the NC State Wolfpack (3-0, 1-0 ACC) and the Duke Blue Devils (1-2, 0-0 ACC). We’ve got you covered with our NC State vs. Duke prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 ET from Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, NC. Looking to win big this football season? We have the best College Football Picks to help you out!
Wolfpack Sneak Past Demon Deacons
Longtime head coach Dave Doeren is back for his 13th season at the helm of the NC State Wolfpack football program. The 2025 campaign is off to a roaring start, as the Wolfpack are a perfect 3-0. They toppled East Carolina (24-17) and Virginia (35-31) in non-conference games to start the year, before following it up with a come-from-behind 34-24 road win over Wake Forest to open ACC play. NC State is 2-1 ATS and they’ve seen the over cash at a rate of 2-1 in 2025.
The offense is the strength of this NC State squad, and they’re led by sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey. The signal caller has thrown for 719 yards on a 70.8% completion rate, adding five touchdowns and one interception. He also has 84 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. RB Hollywood Smothers leads the rushing attack, and he has 380 yards and three touchdowns on 63 totes (6.0 YPC). Out wide, WRs Wesley Grimes (173 yards, 1 TD) and Noah Rogers (109 yards, 1 TD) have emerged as Bailey’s top targets.
- NC State’s updated win total sits at 7.5 (+120/-150), and they’re coming in at +2800 to win the ACC.
- Offensively, the Wolfpack are scoring 31.0 points per game (39th), while averaging 415.0 yards per week (45th).
- Defensively, they’re 64th in the country this year, conceding 24.0 points per game. They’re allowing 412.7 yards per contest, which is 92nd.
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Blue Devils Drop Second Straight Game
Meanwhile, things have not gone according to plan for the Duke Blue Devils this season. The expectations were high for Coach Manny Diaz, as he was hoping to build on a respectable 9-4 (5-3 ACC) mark in his debut campaign. Unfortunately, the Blue Devils have fallen flat on their face out of the gate, going 1-2. They hammered Elon 45-17 in the opener, but followed it up with losses at home against #11 Illinois (45-19) and on the road against Tulane (34-27), more recently. Duke is 0-3 ATS and they’ve seen the over go a perfect 3-0.
QB Darian Mensah, a redshirt sophomore transfer from Tulane, has taken the reins of the offense this season. Despite the team’s lack of success, he has looked good. Mensah has thrown for 1,036 yards on a 67.2% completion rate, adding eight touchdowns and two picks. WR Cooper Barkate is having a big season, hauling in 24 passes for 272 yards. RBs Nate Sheppard (127 yards) and Jaquez Moore (115 yards, 1 TD) have handled a bulk of the rushing load.
- The Blue Devils have a revised win total of just 5.5 (-160/+130), and they sit at +3000 to win the conference title.
- Duke’s offense has been mediocre this season, ranking 77th in scoring (23.0 PPG), while putting up 448.0 yards per game (28th).
- On the defensive side, they’ve struggled this year, allowing 39.5 points per game (64th). In terms of yardage, they’re 95th, conceding 424.5 yards per contest.
NC State vs. Duke Pick
Spread Pick for NC State vs. Duke
- NC State Wolfpack +3.5 (-114) (5 units)
I’ve covered both of these teams throughout the early part of the season, and they both have glaring holes. Even though NC State is 3-0, they’ve had to eke out a few close wins to get this far. However, at least they’ve secured the wins, unlike Duke, which has now lost back-to-back games entering week 4. There’s just no chance that I’m laying more than a field goal’s worth of points with the Blue Devils in their current form. I’ll take the Wolfpack +3.5.
My biggest concern with Duke is their defense. They’re allowing 39.5 points per game this season, which is 122nd in college football. To put that in perspective, there are 136 D-1 programs. I like this experienced, skilled group of NC State, which features QB CJ Bailey, RB Hollywood Smothers, and WR Wesley Grimes. The school has a positive turnover margin per game (+0.7), so as long as they take care of the ball, then this veteran NC State side should flourish against Duke’s questionable defense.
Over/Under Pick for NC State vs. Duke
- Over 57.5 (-105) (5 units)
This game has “over” written all over it. We have a pair of talented quarterbacks taking on two defenses who have been gashed this season. As for NC State, they have allowed 24+ points in each of their last two games. Duke has conceded 34+ points in its last two contests.
The Blue Devils’ offense is not the reason for their ugly 1-2 record. They’re averaging 6.4 yards per play, which is 24th in the nation. The Wolfpack are 39th in the same category (6.0). Darian Mensah has been slinging it this season, already clearing 1,000 passing yards with an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. The over is 10-5 in NC State’s last 15 games, while going 5-1 in Duke’s last six contests. Both teams have the offensive firepower to reach the 30-point mark. I’m taking the over.
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