NC State Wolfpack vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 11, 2025
College football’s week 3 slate kicks off on Thursday night by pitting a couple of unbeaten ACC foes against each other, as the NC State Wolfpack (2-0, 0-0 ACC) takes on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-0, 0-0 ACC). We’ve got you covered with our NC State vs. Wake Forest prediction. Kickoff is set for 7:30 ET from Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Winston-Salem, NC. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Wolfpack Sneak Past Cavaliers
Longtime head coach Dave Doeren is back for his 13th season with the NC State Wolfpack, and he’s looking to build on a pedestrian 6-7 (3-5 ACC) mark from 2024. Coach Doeren brings in two new coordinators, with Kurt Roper taking over the offense and D.J. Elliot installing his 4–3 base defense on the other side of the ball. So far, things are looking good for NC State, as they’re 2-0 out of the gate with victories over East Carolina (24-17) and Virginia (35-31). It is worth pointing out that the UVA win, despite both schools being in the ACC, didn’t count toward their conference record.
In terms of personnel, it’s CJ Bailey handling the quarterbacking responsibilities this year. He’s thrown for 518 yards on a 70.2% completion rate, adding two touchdowns and one interception. Bailey also has 65 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, but Hollywood Smothers is the featured back. Smothers has 216 yards and three touchdowns on 39 totes (5.5 YPC). Out wide, Bailey’s top targets are Wesley Grimes (154 yards, 1 TD) and Teddy Hoffmann (99 yards).
- NC State’s updated win total is 6.5 (-115/-105), and they’re now priced at +4500 to win the conference title.
- Through two games, NC State’s offense has looked solid, ranking 45th in scoring (29.5 PPG) and 38th in yards per game (421.5).
- On the defensive side, the Wolfpack are 69th in points allowed per game (24.0) and 118th in yards conceded per contest (463.5).
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Demon Deacons Hammer the Catamounts
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are ushering in a new era in 2025, as Jake Dickert is taking over the head coaching responsibilities. He comes over from Washington State, where he logged a 23-20 (9-14 PAC-12) mark over 3+ seasons. Rob Ezell and Scottie Hazelton are the offensive and defensive coordinators. It has been a light schedule out of the gate for Wake Forest, but they’ve handled their business by taking down Kennesaw State (10-9) and Western Carolina (42-10) to move to 2-0.
Robby Ashford, the senior transfer from South Carolina, is taking the snaps for the Demon Deacons this year. He has thrown for 445 yards on a 66.0% completion rate, logging one touchdown and one interception. WRs Chris Barnes (172 yards) and Sterling Berkhalter (106 yards, 1 TD) have been his top targets in the passing game. Demond Claiborne has spearheaded the rushing attack, registering 212 yards and three touchdowns on only 13 carries (16.2 YPC).
- Even though they’re 2-0, Wake Forest’s updated win total sits at just 4.5 (-125/+105) entering week 3.
- Wake Forest’s offense is 84th in scoring (26.0 PPG), but against FBS opposition they’ve only scored 10 points.
- Their defense has held up exceptionally well, allowing only 9.5 points per game. However, once again, the Demon Deacons have yet to play a Power Four opponent.
NC State vs. Wake Forest Pick
Spread Pick for NC State vs. Wake Forest
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons +7.5 (-110) (5 units)
To be completely frank, I was hoping to get NC State inside of touchdown favorites here and lay points with them on the road. However, I don’t really trust the Wolfpack to stretch out a sizable lead–especially on the road–so I do think we should take the 7.5 points with the Demon Deacons at home. The Wolfpack have an average margin of victory of just +5.5 this season, and they’re now 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games.
NC State has been neutral in the turnover department this season, posting a turnover per game metric of 0.0. That’s fine, but in order to stretch out a multi-possession win, they’re going to need to create extra possessions. They haven’t done that so far in 2025. With Wake Forest’s defense looking decent out of the gate, allowing only 9.5 points per game, I think they’ll do enough to keep this game close at home.
Over/Under Pick for NC State vs. Wake Forest
- Over 53.5 (-110) (5 units)
I’ll play the over in Winston-Salem on Thursday night. NC State’s offense has looked sharp this season, scoring 29.5 points per game. This dynamic, experienced backfield of CJ Bailey and Hollywood Smothers should continue rolling in this spot against a rebuilding opponent. While I like Wake Forest’s defense to keep them in the game, I’m definitely not expecting them to pitch a shutout. Their strength of schedule thus far has been a joke, which suggests they should be due for regression. Plus, NC State has been an over machine recently, going 5-0 to the over in their last five road games.
On the flip side, the Wolfpack are allowing 463.5 yards per game this season! Redshirt senior Robby Ashford and this group of experienced, skilled players should have no issue moving the ball for a second straight game. I think we’ll see enough offense to sneak over this number, ultimately landing somewhere in the 31-27 range in favor of NC State.
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