Nevada vs. Western Kentucky Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 20, 2025
In a non-conference clash on Saturday night, Western Kentucky (2-1) hosts Nevada (1-2). Nevada’s only win on the young season was facing an FCS team and Western Kentucky had won their first two games before a loss in its last one. Right in this in-depth Nevada vs. Western Kentucky prediction, you can check out the full score info and other free NCAAF picks.
Western Kentucky comes into this game as a 10.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 54.5.
Nevada Gives it Up Late
In their last game, Nevada was at home in a 14-13 loss to Middle Tennessee State, where they gave up two touchdowns in the last six and a half minutes and the game-winner with only 21 seconds left. The Wolf Pack outgained the Blue Raiders (369 yards to 352 yards) and rushed for over 200 yards but committed two turnovers and forced one. Chubba Purdy and AJ Bianco combined to pass for 166 yards and each was picked off once and Herschel Turner rushed for 90 yards. Nevada failed to cover as a 9-point favorite and has failed to cover the spread in their last two games.
- Purdy (329 yards 1 TD 4 INT) and AJ Bianco (106 yards 1 TD 1 INT) have both seen time under center and Purdy will likely get the start.
- Purdy (216 yards 1 TD) is also the team’s leading rusher and Turner (153 yards) has topped 78 rushing yards in each of the last two games.
- Only two players have over 47 receiving yards, led by Marcus Bellon (153 yards 1 TD).
- Nevada’s only road game on the season was a blowout loss but they were facing second-ranked Penn State.
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Not the Best Defensive Effort for Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky was on the road in their last game, where they did not have the best defensive effort in a 45-21 loss to Toledo. They were outgained 508 yards to 333 yards and gave up over 300 rushing yards and only rushed for 59 yards. Maverick McIvor passed for 235 yards with two TD and an INT, Marvis Parrish was the leading rusher with only 22 yards, and Moussa Barry had 110 receiving yards. The Hilltoppers failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite after covering the spread in their first two games.
- McIvor (941 yards 10 TD 1 INT) had passed for over 300 yards in the first two games before 235 yards in the last one.
- Parrish (93 yards 0 TD) is the leading rusher and has only totaled 41 rushing yards in the last two games.
- The pass-happy Hilltoppers have three players with at least 184 receiving yards.
- WKU is 2-0 at home this season.
Nevada vs. Western Kentucky Pick
Spread Pick for Nevada vs. Western Kentucky
- Western Kentucky -10.5
Western Kentucky is coming off their first loss of the season and Nevada lost their last game after their first win in the previous one. This is a matchup of teams with different styles, as the Hilltoppers are led by their passing offense while the Wolf Pack are led by their rushing offense. WKU ranks eighth in the nation in passing yards per game and Nevada ranks 51st in rushing yards per game. The Wolf Pack only ranks 108th in the nation in defending the pass, while Western Kentucky only ranks 126th in run defense. In terms of the Western Kentucky vs. Nevada prediction, WKU will get it done at home and win and cover, facing a Nevada team where their only win was a close one over an FCS team.
Over/Under Pick for Nevada vs. Western Kentucky
- Over 54.5
The total has gone Over for all three of Western Kentucky’s games and Under for the last two games for Nevada, and I am leaning towards the Over in this game. WKU had scored at least 41 points in their first two games and with their dynamic passing offense, they will put up a high total facing a Nevada pass defense that only ranks 108th in the nation. The Wolf Pack are a run-first team that will put up a decent total, since the Hilltoppers only rank 126th in run defense. Western Kentucky will light up the scoreboard in this one, and that is the main reason the Over is the pick.
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