Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico Lobos Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 18, 2025
Use Code SSWC Get ready for some Week 8 Mountain West Conference action as the Nevada Wolf Pack face off against the New Mexico Lobos in our Wolf Pack vs. Lobos prediction. Set to unfold at University Stadium on October 18th at 9:45 PM ET, this game, airing on FS1, promises an intriguing matchup with two teams at different levels this season. Nevada is 1-5 (0-2 MWC) while New Mexico is 3-3 (0-2). With these teams on losing streaks heading into this game, let's dive into the stats, injuries, and key insights for this matchup. College gridiron clarity — NCAAF picks for Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico Lobos with key matchups.
Wolf Pack Needs to Find Answers
The Nevada Wolf Pack are looking to figure out how to get on the winning side of things after coming off a 44-10 home loss against the San Diego State Aztecs last week. Their offense has been ice cold as they are scoring just 14.5 points per game this year, placing them 133rd in the NCAA. Backup quarterback Carter Jones has replaced Chubba Purdy in the lineup and is finding his way as he has completed 27-of-48 passes (56.3%) for 298 yards with three touchdown passes to three interceptions in the few games he has played. Purdy was completing just 51.9% of his passes and had a 1/9 TD/INT ratio. As a team, they are moving the ball at a snail’s pace as they are ranked 124th in the country in total yards, averaging 309.5 per game. Nevada’s passing offense, which averages 149.0 yards per game, places them at 127th in the sport. The rushing game, contributing 160.5 yards per game (64th nationally), has been what is carrying the offense right now.
The Wolf Pack defense is currently 99th in the sport with 28.7 points allowed per game. They are also allowing too many yards against them as they are 83rd with 379.0 total yards per game. Their pass defense has been brutal as they allowed the opposing quarterback to post a 70.5 completion percentage, which is the second-worst in college football this year.
Injury Report for Nevada
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- Wide receiver Jordan Brown: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Wide receiver Marquis Ashley: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Wide receiver Marcus Bellon: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Offensive lineman Hadine Diaby: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Linebacker EJ Smith: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Linebacker Nahji Logan: Undisclosed (Questionable)
Lobos Looking to Get Over .500
The New Mexico Lobos are looking to continue playing well as they are coming off a 45-21 road loss against the Boise State Broncos last week. They are currently 66th in the NCAA with 29.2 points per game scored. The Lobos’ offense is being led by quarterback Jack Layne, and he has been able to complete 114-of-171 (66.7%) passes for 1,277 yards with eight passing touchdowns and eight interceptions while adding 27 rushing attempts for two yards (0.1 yards per carry) with two rushing touchdowns to add. Wide receiver Keagan Johnson is helping out in the passing game with his production as he has 31 catches for 364 yards (11.7 yards per reception) with two touchdown grabs while also having a pair of rushes for nine yards (4.5 yards per catch) on the year. Their total offense stands at 369.2 yards per game (80th in NCAA), with the rushing attack able to get 136.8 yards (93rd). The passing game has been the better part of the offense with an average of 232.3 yards per game (67th).
Defensively, New Mexico is giving up 27.0 points per game right now, which is 90th in college football. The team has been unable to get stops as they are allowing 392.0 total yards per game (98th), with their inability to stop the pass as they are giving up 7.8 yards per pass attempt (108th). The Lobos need a better defensive showing if they want to be victorious.
Injury Report for New Mexico
- Wide receiver Michael Buckley: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Safety C.J. Johnson: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Safety Austin Brawley: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Safety Clint Stephens: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Safety Nick Wheeler: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Offensive lineman Tevin Shaw: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Defensive lineman Dimitri Johnson: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Cornerback Abraham Williams: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Running back Darion Bowers: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Offensive lineman Elvin Harris: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Cornerback Keith Reddix: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Cornerback Jayden Sheridan: Undisclosed (OUT)
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico Lobos Pick
Spread Pick for Nevada vs. New Mexico
- New Mexico Lobos -11.5 (4 units)
This game is going to be difficult to see the offense get going, as even after benching Chubba Purdy for Carter Jones, the Wolf Pack offense could not muster much up, as they scored 10 points in the fourth quarter after being down 44-0. New Mexico has struggled in conference play, but it played Boise State at a respectable level last week. Their team has the better offensive production and should be able to protect Layne enough to keep defensive lineman Dylan Labarbera out of the backfield too much, so go with the Lobos to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Nevada vs. New Mexico
- Over 49.5 (5 units)
There is expected to be clear skies at University Stadium, meaning the offenses do not have weather as an excuse for bad play. Both defenses have struggled to figure out how to get stops in Mountain West Conference action this season, as the Wolf Pack are giving up 32.0 points per game while the Lobos are allowing 38.0 points per game in conference play. Each defense has been allowing 5.8 yards per play this year, which means they are susceptible to allowing big plays regularly. New Mexico has gone over in three straight games.
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