New Mexico Lobos versus San Jose State Spartans Picks and Predictions - Friday, October 3rd
Use Code SSWC New Mexico versus San Jose State Picks and Predictions - Friday, October 3rd
New Mexico is traveling to CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, California, for its week six matchup against San Jose State. New Mexico is sixth in the MWC with a season record of 3-1. San Jose State is 11th in the MWC with a season record of 1-3. Neither school has played a conference game this season. San Jose State won their last meeting against New Mexico in 2023 with a final score of 52-24. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. EDT. If you are struggling to pick winners, you've come to the right place. We have the strongest College Football Picks.
New Mexico Thriving On Defense
New Mexico is coming off another win on Saturday versus New Mexico State with a final score of 38-20. This is the third win in a row for the Lobos as they look for their first conference win on Friday against San Jose State. QB Jack Laney completed 20 of 30 for 303 yards with four TDs and no picks in their win over the Aggies. He's completing 69.3% of his passes on the season with 818 yards, seven TDs and three INTs.
The Lobos’ defense has looked great to start their season, ranking 42nd in points allowed and 50th in yards allowed. The key to their defense has been their defensive line, which has made it difficult for teams to generate any run game as well as grab consistent sacks and tackles for a loss. New Mexico is 37th in sacks this season and this has been greatly attributed to defensive linebacker Keyshawn James-Newby. James-Newby leads the team in both tackles for a loss (3) and sacks (2.5). With this consistency at the line, the Lobos have been capable of getting the ball back in their offense’s hands more reliably.
On offense, we are seeing the Lobos generate points consistently thanks to their defense stopping their opposition. New Mexico is 92nd in plays and 86th in points. New Mexico has managed to take advantage of these turnovers and punts by their opponents, but due to their focus on their run game, it has led to them losing time on the clock. New Mexico is 76th in rushing yards and 64th in rushing yards per carry at 4.6. This has been the playstyle for the Lobos as they grab a lead and slowly bleed the clock with their defense, allowing very little in the way of yardage.
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Injuries:
- Vinson TE Questionable - Undisclosed
- Sheridan CB Questionable - Undisclosed
- Shaw OG Questionable - Undisclosed
- Harris OG Questionable - Undisclosed
- Glasgow K Questionable - Undisclosed
- Johnson S Questionable - Undisclosed
- Brawley S Questionable - Undisclosed
- Reddix CB Out - Undisclosed
- Bowers RB Out - Undisclosed
San Jose State Falls In Close Loss
San Jose State picked up a tough loss last week to Stanford with a final score of 30-29. This is the third loss on the season for San Jose State as they go to a 1-3 record. The Spartans aim to pick up a win in their first conference series game of the season. Quarterback play has been spotty as Walker Eget has completed just 54.7% of his passes for 718 yards with three TDS and three picks.
San Jose State was unable to secure the win in a close loss to Stanford, in which they were a 6.5-point underdog. While they did cover their spread, they were unable to secure a much-needed win. The Spartans held the lead up until the remaining 23 seconds of the game, which saw Stanford grab a touchdown to secure their 30-29 victory over San Jose State.
The Spartans’ defense this season may be underwhelming, ranking 120th in points scored and 95th in total yards but they have made up for it thanks to their defense. Unfortunately, last week saw a failure in their defense and a surprising spark of offense going up against the struggling Stanford defense. On the season, the Spartans are 79th in points allowed and have one of the better run defenses, which sits 56th in total rushing yards allowed. This may be due to their poor pass game, which sits 102nd in passing yards and 133rd in yards per reception at 9.2. We simply are not seeing much pressure from the defensive line on the quarterback and this is shown by their lack of sacks this season with the Spartans ranking 109th in sacks this season.
Injuries:
- Riley WR Out Lower Body
New Mexico versus San Jose State Picks and Predictions
Spread Pick for New Mexico versus San Jose State
- New Mexico +2.5 (-106) (4 units)
New Mexico has a record against the spread of 6-3-0 on the road since 2024. San Jose State on the other hand has a record against the spread of 3-6-0 at home since 2024. In conference games, it does not look better for the Spartans as they have a record of 1-6-0 against the spread in conference games since 2024. New Mexico is coming off a win which they have proven to do well in games that follow victories, having a 5-2-0 record against the spread since 2024. While San Jose State was able to generate points thanks to them facing a weaker defense in Stanford last week, they will not have that same ease going up against one of the better defenses in their division. New Mexico should keep this game close if not grab the outright win over San Jose State.
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico versus San Jose State
- Over 58.5 (-118) (3 units)
New Mexico has an over/under record of 6-3-0 since 2024 when on the road. The Lobos also have an over/under record of 5-2-0 in games that followed a win since 2024. The last time these two teams met at San Jose State resulted in a 38-21 final score. While San Jose State does struggle on offense, I believe this total will largely be controlled by New Mexico, which has thrived lately on offense and will likely take advantage of the poor pass defense of San Jose State.
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