New Mexico Lobos vs. UCLA Bruins Prediction and Picks - September 12, 2025
Use Code SSWC The UCLA Bruins will host the New Mexico Lobos on Friday night, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our New Mexico vs. UCLA prediction. The Bruins are in rough shape after a road loss to UNLV dropped them to 0-2, while the Lobos are coming off a 10-point home win over FCS Idaho State. Kickoff for the Week 3 matchup is set for 10:00 PM ET on Friday, September 12.
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Lobos Escape With Win Over Bengals
The New Mexico Lobos ultimately took care of business against the visiting Idaho State Bengals last week, but the affair was far closer than fans wanted or oddsmakers were expecting. Idaho State had possession when the game entered the fourth quarter, and they finished their drive with a touchdown to take a 22-17 lead with 10:40 left to play. New Mexico put the game away with touchdowns on their next two drives, but its 32-22 win fell well short of covering the 17.5-point spread. A win is a win, but it's a deflating way to follow the Lobos' season opener–a competitive game against the Michigan Wolverines, in Ann Arbor, that New Mexico only lost 17-34 despite entering as 34.5-point underdogs.
Junior quarterback Jack Layne played a smaller role in the team's Week 2 game after throwing the ball relentlessly in Week 1. Against the Wolverines, Layne completed 31 of 47 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown while throwing three interceptions and taking three sacks. He attempted only 21 passes against the Bengals, completing 13 for 155 yards. Scottre Humphrey, a junior running back, led the way in Week 2 with 141 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries–a substantially better performance than the 33 yards he found on ten carries against Michigan.
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The 2025 season is young, and the two opponents we've seen the Lobos play exist on opposite ends of the sport's talent spectrum. Friday's game against a struggling UCLA unit should provide us with a better look at what this New Mexico team is.
Can the Bruins Rally After 0-2 Start?
The UCLA Bruins find themselves in a hole after their 2025 season started on a surprisingly dire note. They entered their season opener, at home against the Utah Utes, as 6.5-point underdogs in a game they'd go on to lose 10-43. Week 2 saw the Bruins travel to play the UNLV Rebels in a game they were favored to win by 1.5 points. They allowed the Rebels to convert a field goal to go up 3-0 on their first drive, and lost 23-30 after failing to take the lead at any point afterward.
It isn't hard to find the deficiencies in the Bruins' game–they show up in the third-down splits, turnover differential, and the absence of statistics in the defensive box score. UCLA went 3 of 13 on third down while allowing UNLV to go 5 of 10; a week earlier, they'd gone 2 of 11 on third down while allowing Utah to convert an absurd 14 of 16 attempts. Sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava, in his first year with UCLA after transferring from Tennessee, has posted a combined line of 40-63 (63.5%), 391 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and six sacks taken. The Bruins' defense, in two games, has recorded two sacks, two pass defenses, and a forced fumble that they didn't recover. UNLV scored a touchdown on each of their next three drives after the field goal to open the game; UCLA, in a game they were favored to win by 1.5 points, went into halftime down 3-23.
Week 3 brings the Bruins an opponent they're favored to beat by 15.5 points. If their defense remains conspicuously absent, the Bruins will be facing a bleak forecast for their season once conference play begins.
New Mexico vs UCLA
Spread Pick for New Mexico vs UCLA
- New Mexico +15.5 (-110) (4 Units)
After the way UCLA has opened their 2025 season, I'm not sure there's a team in college football I'd take them to beat by more than 14 points. They're hosting a New Mexico team that played a surprisingly close road game against a significantly better Big Ten program in Michigan only two weeks ago. It's a positive sign for the Bruins' season if they win this game at all, let alone by 16 points. I'd take the Lobos here.
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico vs UCLA
- Over 53.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Bruins' defense has allowed 30 points in consecutive weeks to Utah and UNLV, largely letting both teams move the ball at will. New Mexico's only scoring 32 points against Idaho State last week was a function of their game plan, only having Layne attempt 21 passes while the team logged 38 rushing attempts and scored four times on the ground. If UCLA shows up–they have yet to lead in a game this season–expect both teams to hit season-high points totals.
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