New Mexico St. vs Hawaii Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 13 2026

The New Mexico State Aggies travel to the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii, to face the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors on Sunday, September 13. New Mexico State enters at 1-1 after routing Mercyhurst 51-14, while Hawaii is 0-2 following a 21-6 home loss to UNLV. The current betting market has Hawaii favored by 11.5 points with the total set at 51.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

New Mexico State Offense Comes Alive

New Mexico State opened its season with a difficult road assignment at Florida State before returning home and producing a dramatically different performance against Mercyhurst. The Aggies rolled to a 51-14 victory while accumulating 553 total yards.

Trey Hedden completed 11 of 20 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns. Backup Adam Damante added 65 passing yards and a touchdown on three completions, giving New Mexico State 318 yards through the air.

The running game provided excellent balance. Javin Jones rushed 19 times for 137 yards and broke loose for a 48-yard touchdown. New Mexico State also generated explosive plays through the passing game, highlighted by Terrione Graves' 83-yard touchdown reception.

The defense contributed directly to the scoring when Nick Sessions intercepted a pass on Mercyhurst's first offensive snap and returned it 26 yards for a touchdown. New Mexico State eventually held Mercyhurst scoreless throughout the second half.

Obviously, Hawaii presents a much more difficult challenge than Mercyhurst, but New Mexico State's offensive performance matters. The Aggies demonstrated enough explosiveness to make catching double digits attractive, particularly against a Hawaii team that has yet to win.

Hawaii Offense Struggles Against UNLV

Hawaii's difficult start continued with a 21-6 loss to UNLV in its Mountain West opener. The Rainbow Warriors fell to 0-2 and were held without a touchdown at home for the first time since 2023.

Micah Alejado has thrown for 448 yards through Hawaii's first two games with two touchdowns and one interception. DeVon Rice leads the rushing attack with 108 yards on 26 carries while also contributing eight receptions for 52 yards and a touchdown.

The biggest issue has been converting offensive production into points. Hawaii managed only six against UNLV, and the Rainbow Warriors now have to cover a double-digit spread despite still searching for their first victory.

The defense kept Hawaii competitive for stretches against UNLV, but the Rainbow Warriors couldn't generate enough offense to seriously threaten during the second half. Hawaii now receives a reduction in competition and retains a substantial home-field advantage because of the travel involved for New Mexico State.

Still, laying 11.5 points requires considerably more offensive efficiency than Hawaii demonstrated last week. The Rainbow Warriors need Alejado and the passing attack to finish drives rather than settling for empty possessions.

New Mexico State vs Hawaii Picks and Prediction

Pick: New Mexico State +11.5

New Mexico State +11.5 is my preferred side. Hawaii deserves to be favored at home, but laying nearly two touchdowns with an 0-2 team that just scored six points is difficult to justify. New Mexico State produced 553 yards against Mercyhurst, with Hedden throwing for 253 and Jones rushing for 137. The Aggies are also 2-0 against the spread through their first two games. Hawaii can win this matchup without creating enough separation to cover. Getting through the key number of 10 makes New Mexico State +11.5 attractive.

Pick: Under 51.5

The Under 51.5 is my preferred total. Hawaii's offense has yet to demonstrate the consistency necessary for me to project a high-scoring game, while New Mexico State's 51-point explosion needs to be viewed in the context of facing an FCS Mercyhurst team. Hawaii should have more defensive success than Mercyhurst did, and its best path to victory involves controlling the game rather than creating a shootout. Something around 27-20 or 28-20 fits this matchup. Take Under 51.5.

Final Picks: New Mexico State +11.5 and Under 51.5