New Mexico State Aggies vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 1, 2025
We have an exciting Conference USA game for Week 10 of the college football season as the New Mexico State Aggies will be heading to the Houchen Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Kentucky, on Saturday afternoon to face off against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in our Aggies vs Hilltoppers prediction. The game is airing on ESPN+ and these teams are on different levels so far this season. The Aggies (3-4, 1-3 CUSA) are on a two-game losing streak as they are coming off a 24-17 overtime home loss against the Missouri State Bears last Wednesday. The Hilltoppers (6-2, 4-1) are coming off last Tuesday’s 28-27 overtime road win over the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. Find the edge fast with NCAAF picks for the New Mexico State Aggies at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
Aggies Looking to Get Back in the Win Column
The New Mexico State Aggies are looking to snap their two-game losing streak as they are coming off a 24-17 overtime home loss against the Missouri State Bears last time out. The Aggies couldn’t get enough done offensively as the team scored 17 points on 289 total yards of offense (207 passing, 82 rushing). Quarterback Logan Fife played a terrible game as he completed 22-of-34 passes for 27 yards with one passing touchdown and four interceptions as well as six rushes for three yards (0.5 yards per carry). The offense went only 3-for-10 on third downs throughout the game to move the ball. The four turnovers were the main part of the loss, giving away potential scoring drives in such a close game.
The defense was able to hold its ground as the Aggies allowed the Bears to score 24 points on 409 total yards (283 passing, 126 rushing). The defense struggled to get off the field as they were 6-of-14 on third downs over the course of the game. The New Mexico State defense was forcing mistakes, with three takeaways (one fumble recovery, two interceptions). However, they wound up falling short in the game.
Fife is completing 57.6% of his passes for 1,721 yards with nine touchdown passes and eight picks this season. WR Donovan Faupel leads the passing attack with 36 catches for 447 yards (12.4 ypc) and three TDs. New Mexico State has been struggling offensively as they are 107th in the NCAA with 22.1 points per game. Their defense is allowing 24.0 points per game, which places them in 66th place throughout college football. They also allow 385.0 yards per game to rank 91st, and they are not doing too well in terms of slowing the passing game down, as they are 99th with 241.7 passing yards allowed per game.
Injury Report for New Mexico State
- Linebacker Tyler Martinez: Lower Body (Questionable)
- Cornerback Saveon Freeman: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Linebacker Chance Barron: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Running back Roscoe Burton: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Safety Siddeeq Shabazz: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Offensive lineman Ma’Kyi Lee: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Tight end Jerry Lydiatt: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Defensive lineman Josiah Jackson: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Running back Tim Gans: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Wide receiver AJ Williams: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Cornerback Dakerric Hobbs: Undisclosed (OUT)
- Defensive end Reeves Baller: Undisclosed (OUT)
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Hilltoppers Clicking Right Now
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are looking to continue playing well after last week’s 28-27 overtime road win against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. Their offense was sharp as they recorded 28 points on 340 total yards of offense (227 passing, 113 rushing) while recording 21 total first downs. Backup quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr finished the game by completing 21-of-34 passes for 227 yards with one passing touchdown and one interception while also rushing 12 times for 73 yards (6.1 yards per carry) as well. The team was able to move the chains at a great rate as they were 7-for-15 on third downs and converted on both fourth down tries. With the team turning the ball over once, they won without making too many mistakes.
The defense allowed 27 points on 449 total yards (340 passing, 109 rushing), and the team was able to move the ball as they were 10-for-19 on third downs, but 1-for-3 on fourth downs against the Hilltoppers. The defense recorded an interception, and the Bulldogs were limited tk 2.9 yards per rushing attempt. With the defense able to do enough, they were able to continue holding onto a hope for a conference championship game berth.
Maverick McIvor is expected to be the starting quarterback after missing last week, as he is completing 67.3% of his passes for 1,863 yards with 12 TDs and five picks this season. WR Matthew Henry is leading the receiving group as he has 28 catches for 487 yards (17.4 ypc) and three touchdowns. Western Kentucky has been able to score at a good level, as they are 62nd in the NCAA with 29.5 points per game. Their defense is allowing 23.6 points per game, which places them 60th in college football. They also allow 408.9 yards per game to rank 107th, and they are doing poorly at stopping the running game as they have allowed 5.2 yards per attempt (129th).
Injury Report for Western Kentucky
- Tight end Noah Meyers: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Wide receiver Jarius Mack: Undisclosed (Questionable)
New Mexico State Aggies at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick
Spread Pick for New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -9.5 (4 units)
The ability to limit the number of passes against them shows a significant number, as Western Kentucky is 19th in college football with a 56.9 opposing completion percentage, while New Mexico State is 115th in the country with a 66.2 completion percentage against them thus far. The Hilltoppers are also one of the healthiest teams in the entire nation, only dealing with two players on the injury report at this point in the season. The Aggies struggle to run the football as they are only averaging 2.4 yards per attempt with five rushing touchdowns, making their offense more one-sided. All in all, go with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky
- OVER 53.5 (5 units)
These teams are entering this game with extended rest as both have more than the typical seven days between games. Both teams are also coming off an overtime game, which just gives us more points at the end of the day, as they are going to play a relatively close game. Neither defense has shown the ability to limit the amount of yardage, and these teams are going to be score at an incredible level with their quarterbacks, so take OVER 53.5 POINTS to hit in this matchup as well.
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