New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, October 14, 2025
Use Code SSWC The New Mexico State Aggies travel to Lynchburg to face the Liberty Flames on Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on CBSSN. The Aggies enter this Conference USA matchup at 3-2 overall and 1-1 in conference play, while Liberty stands at 2-4 and 1-1 in the conference. New Mexico State is coming off a 37-10 win over Sam Houston, while Liberty snapped a four-game skid with a 19-8 road victory at UTEP. Your Saturday scout: NCAAF predictions for New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames you can trust.
New Mexico State Picks Up Another Home Win
New Mexico State played one of its most complete games of the season last week, piling up 37 points and forcing three turnovers in a win over Sam Houston State. Quarterback Logan Fife had 255 passing yards and two total touchdowns, completing 73% of his throws. On the season, Fife. who has also played at Fresno State and Montana, has thrown for 1,272 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions, while receivers Donovan Faupel (312 yards) and TK King continue to be Fife’s best targets across the middle and downfield. The Aggies’ offense averages 22.2 points per game, generating 374 total yards, with 254 through the air and 120 on the ground.
The Aggies’ ground attack is just average but effective behind Kadarius Calloway, who leads the team with 146 yards and two scores. When New Mexico State runs well, it helps balance an offense that has relied for the most part on Fife’s passing. In last week’s win, the Aggies sustained long drives, creating good field position even when stopped.
Defensively, the Aggies have held opponents to 331 total yards per game and just 22.8 points. Naeten Mitchell has played well in the secondary with 44 tackles and a 71-yard pick-six last week. The front seven, led by Ezra Christensen (three sacks), has generated consistent pressure, and the defense has nine sacks and three interceptions through five games. This defense has shown improvement and will need to contain Liberty’s mobile quarterback to have a chance to win.
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Injuries: New Mexico State has five players who are all listed as questionable.
Liberty Flames Aim to Build on Defensive Win
Liberty ended a four-game losing streak by beating UTEP 19-8 last Wednesday, holding the Miners to 167 total yards. Quarterback Ethan Vasko was effective in dual-threat fashion, throwing for 243 yards and adding a rushing touchdown. Vasko has completed 74 of 129 passes this season for 1,006 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions. Vasko’s scrambling ability has added another dimension to an offense that averages 364 total yards and 20.5 points per game.
Running back Evan Dickens has been the workhorse for Liberty, rushing for 344 yards and two scores on 65 carries. He is questionable for this matchup, but Vaughn Blue stepped up with 75 yards at UTEP and should share carries if Dickens is unable to play the entire time. The Flames’ receiving game has been led by Donte Lee Jr., who has 289 yards and three touchdowns, while C.J. Daniels has been another option for Vasko to throw to. Liberty’s offensive line has improved its protection, allowing Vasko to get comfortable in the pocket.
On defense, Liberty has been the more consistent. The Flames have allowed just 19.3 points per game over the last three outings and are giving up 372 total yards per game. Linebacker Joseph Carter leads the team with 43 tackles, while C.J. Bazile Jr. has 1.5 sacks. In the secondary, Eldric Griffin sealed the UTEP win with an interception late in the fourth quarter. This defense has become one of the better ones in CUSA in takeaways, with six in the last four games.
Injuries: Five players are questionable. QB Ryan Burger and OG Cal Grubbs remain out.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Pick
Spread Pick for New Mexico State vs. Liberty
- Â Liberty Flames -6.5 (4 Units)
Liberty’s defense and advantage of playing at home make it the side to take. The Flames held UTEP under 200 total yards and have allowed only two offensive touchdowns in the last two games. With Vasko’s dual-threat ability and an improving offensive line, Liberty should control the line of scrimmage and create better field position while keeping the Aggies deep in their own end. New Mexico State has struggled away from home—allowing over 30 points per game on the road—and its injuries on the offensive line could limit Fife’s time in the pocket. The Flames’ defense and balance on offense should help them cover comfortably.
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico State vs. Liberty Flames
- Â Under 47.5 (5 Units)
Both teams prefer methodical, possession-driven football, and neither offense has been particularly explosive. Liberty has hit the under in four straight games and six of their last sevcen, while New Mexico State relies on short passes and conservative play-calling. The Aggies average just 22.2 points per game, and Liberty’s defense has improved each week. Expect long drives, limited big plays, and a focus on defense throughout.
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